Winter Weather Advisory for light Ice & Snow

3:41 pm update

...Impactful Winter Weather Possible Late Tonight And Friday Morning...
...Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 3 Am Est /2 Am Cst/ To
11 Am Est /10 Am Cst/ Friday...
* What...Light Snow Developing Late Tonight Over South-Central Indiana And Much Of Central Kentucky. Precipitation Mixing With Or Changing To Light Freezing Rain Or Sleet, Before Ending As A Little Light Rain, Especially Over Parts Of Central Kentucky.
Total Snow Accumulations Of An Inch Or Less. A Glaze Of Ice Is Possible On Roads And Especially Elevated Surfaces.
* Where...South-Central Indiana, North-Central And East-Central Kentucky, And A Part Of South-Central Kentucky To The North And East Of Bowling Green.
* When...From 3 Am Est /2 Am Cst/ To 11 Am Est /10 Am Cst/
Friday.
* Additional Details...Expect Some Roads, Overpasses, And Elevated Surfaces To Become Slick. Use Caution If Driving. The Hazardous Conditions Could Impact The Morning Commute.

This is the National Weather Service's Probabilistic Snowfall & Ice Experiment.
Numbers will vary in actuality for some locations.

Ice

Snow

I have some good news for you non snow lovers, a week of warm weather is coming thwis week with highs creeping in to the 50's, and even low 60's. There are more rain chances with even a rumble of thunder. That's all for this blog this afternoon, be sure to check back for updates.

Polar Vortex, Winter Weather & Wind Chill Advisories.

*Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 2 Am Est /1 Am Cst/
Wednesday...

Wind Chill Advisory Remains In Effect From 5 Am Est /4 Am Cst/
To 2 Pm Est /1 Pm Cst/ Wednesday...
* What...Snow. Very Cold Wind Chills Expected. Additional Snow Accumulations Of Up To One Inch. Wind Chills As Low As 15 Below Zero Expected.
* Where...Portions Of North Central, Northwest And South Central Kentucky.
* When...For The Winter Weather Advisory, Until 2 Am Est /1 Am Cst/ Wednesday. For The Wind Chill Advisory, From 5 Am Est /4
Am Cst/ To 2 Pm Est /1 Pm Cst/ Wednesday.
* Additional Details...Plan On Slippery Road Conditions. The Hazardous Conditions Could Impact The Morning Commute.


Radar provided by accuweather.com

Here is some information about the Polar Vortex!

Super Blood Wolf Moon, Total Lunar Eclipse.

This was an absolute blast to watch, film, and photograph. This was my first time ever viewing through a telescope and shooting 100% in manual mode. Watch as the moon continuously drifts out of the frame, I hope you all enjoy my video!         🌕😍🌖😊

Winter Storm Harper

1-2" per hour snowfall rate likely.

Current Nation Wide Alerts: Click any image to enlarge.

Local Alerts:

Winter Storm Warning: Pink 4-6" with 40 mph winds.
Winter Weather Advisory: Purple: 1-4" with 40 mph winds.

Above, the WPC giving a 50-60 percent chance for snowfall greater than or equal to 4".

Below a 10% chance for snowfall greater than or equal to 8"

Here is a radar provided by accuweather.com to get you through the event.

More updates coming in a few hours, stay tuned.

Winter Weather Advisory

Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 4 Pm Est /3 Pm Cst/
Saturday To 10 Am Est /9 Am Cst/ Sunday...
* What...Rain Will Transition To Snow By Saturday Evening. Total Snow Accumulations Of 1 To 3 Inches Saturday Night. Winds Gusts Of 35 To 45 Mph.
* Where...Southern Indiana And Central Kentucky. The Heaviest Forecast Amounts Are Along And North Of I-64, But Bands Of Heavier Snow Can Form Saturday Evening Anywhere Across The Region, Bringing Higher Amounts.
* When...Snow Will Begin Across Southern Indiana In The 4 To 7 Pm Est Time Frame Saturday. The Transition Line Will Make It To The I-65 Corridor In Kentucky Anywhere From 8 To 11 Pm Est And Then To The I-75 Corridor Anywhere From 11 Pm To 2 Am Est Early Sunday Morning.
* Additional Details...Gusty Winds With The Snowfall Saturday Evening And Early Overnight Will Make For Reduced Visibilities And Hazardous Driving Conditions. In Addition, Wind Chill Factors Will Drop Into The Single Digits For Most Locations By Daybreak Sunday.

Winter Weather Advisory (Purple), click to enlarge. 

Here is a forecast tool that changes with new model runs. Click to enlarge.

This is the current probability of some locations that may receive at least 1 or more inchs of snow. As you can see here, the farther North & East you go the better your chances are.

I'll have another update later today or early tomorrow.

Flash Flood, Flash Freeze & Winter Weather

NWS Special Weather Statement:

...Major Winter Storm This Weekend...
"A Potent Cold Front And Upper Level Jet Stream Will Combine To Produce A Wild Weekend Of Weather. Rain Will Come In Late Friday Night...And Increase In Intensity On Saturday. Expect Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 2 Inches With Southern Kentucky Possibly Getting Up To 3 Inches. This Will Cause Streams And Creeks To Rise Along With Rivers, Especially The Green River And Rough Rivers. On Saturday Evening....Temperatures Will Plummet Some 20 To 30 Degrees As An Arctic Cold Front Plows Through. There Will Be A Brief Period Of A Wintry Mix Of Sleet...Freezing Rain And Snow.
*Next Comes A Period Of Snow And Very Strong Northwesterly Winds For The Overnight Hours. There Is Uncertainty On The Exact Track Of The Surface Low, Thus The Exact Snow Amounts Are Unclear. Data Suggests A 1 To 2 Inch Snowfall Across The Northern Half Of The Area Saturday Night Into Early Sunday Morning. Temperatures And Especially Wind Chills Will Plummet With Winds Of 20 To 30 Mph Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning. Wind Chills Will Be Single Digits Sunday Morning And Near 0 Monday Morning. Try To Avoid Going Outdoors Overnight Saturday Through Early Sunday Morning Due To Bitterly Cold Temperatures. There Is A Good Chance Of A Flash Freeze Saturday Night.
Stay Up To Date Of The Latest Forecasts As Details Are Likely To Change Leading Up To The Event".

Slight Risk:Flash Flooding

10% chance for at least 4" in blue.

Next Weekend Potential.

Good Sunday afternoon everybody, enjoy a week of weather with highs in the mid 40's to even 50's across Central Kentucky with rain chances coming on Thursday.

The NWS Louisville put out a special weather statement for freezing drizzle.
"Patchy Drizzle Is Expected To Move Through The Region This Afternoon And Continue Into The Evening Hours. Later Tonight, As Surface Temperatures Fall Below Freezing, We Could See That Drizzle Change Over To Patchy Areas Of Freezing Drizzle. While The Freezing Drizzle Is Expected To Be Light In Nature, Untreated Road Surfaces And Elevated Road Surface Could Become Slick And Hazardous. In Addition, Any Roadways That Have Residual Water On Them Late Tonight, Could Also Become Slick And Hazardous.
If You Have Travel Plans For Late Tonight And Tomorrow Morning,S low Down And Allow Yourself Extra Time To Reach Your Destination. Stay Tuned To Noaa All Hazards Weather Radio And Your Local Media For The Latest Updates On This Winter Weather Situation".

I'll mention the potential for winter weather once more this coming weekend. I'm not going to get into specifics at this time, but I will leave you with this to ponder.

The WPC has us in a 10-30% chance for winter precipitation to reach or exceed .25" for day 7. Are you ready for cold weather to take over by late January into February?

Winter Storm Gia

TOTALS:

radar provided by AccuWeather.com.



Here is the National Weather Service's Snowfall Forecast Map. Click to enlarge.

weather.gov

Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 10 Pm Est /9 Pm Cst/This Evening To 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst/ Saturday...
* What...Snow Expected. Total Snow Accumulations Of One To Two Inches Expected. A Light Glaze Of Ice Will Also Be Possible Due To Freezing Rain.
* Where...Portions Of East Central, North Central, Northwest And South Central Kentucky.
* When...From 10 Pm Est /9 Pm Cst/ This Evening To 9 Am Est /8
Am Cst/ Saturday.
* Additional Details...Plan On Slippery Road Conditions.

Legend
PINK: Winter Storm Warning
PURPLE: Winter Weather Advisory
BLUE: Winter Storm Watch

Accumulating Snow this weekend.

Here's the latest information from the WPC regarding this weekend.

The models are agreeing on a Winter Storm in parts of Missouri, Illinois, and other places circled in red where some locations may receive significant snowfall, therefore a Winter Storm Watch has been issued there and some of those locations will be upgraded to warnings.

Here is the Winter Storm Watch for Missouri & Illinois in blue.

For Kentucky, models are agreeing on accumulating snow in Northern Kentucky, Southern Indiana, and Ohio.
The rain/snow line will fall somewhere near I-64 on Saturday. Locations south of this rain/snow line are expected to warm near the upper 30's. This will switch the snowfall Friday night to early Saturday day morning to freezing rain, then quickly to plain rain. Areas north of the rain/snow line will mostly stay all snow, but may see rain mix in as well. These locations will have the best chance for measurable accumulation.

• You can see the sharp cut off here where the percentage for greater than 1" of snow resides. The more north you go, the better the chances are.

For the Central Kentucky viewing area, this is the National Weather Service in Louisville, Ky's Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment. This is an experiment that should not be counted on one hundred percent. However, with the past couple years that it has been active, it comes close to being correct more often times than not.

Click to enlarge images, stay tuned for changes. All information comes from weather.gov that I have explained more in detail for you.

Winter Weather This Weekend.

3:57 pm update.
While models are currently taking a northward trend, the WPC has placed portions of Kentucky in a 10% chance for 4 inches or more of snow on Saturday.

Jan 9, 2019 9:23 am update.

The models are still not quite in full agreement, however they are all hinting at some snow at some point. How much in certain areas is still to be determined due to the low pressure system track uncertainty. Also how cold or warm the temperatures will be on Saturday. We will probably start as all snow Friday night into early Saturday morning, but switch to freezing rain, and then plain cold rain as the high Saturday is forecast to be in the upper 30's. Depending on if we hit the high or not is the big question on how much snow will be able to accumulate, how much rain or even freezing rain perhaps. The models will likely shift a few more times for a couple more days before settling. 

Weather.gov

The WPC has us in a 50-70% chance for accumulation of .25" or more of snow/sleet For Day 4. As of the lastest runs, locations north of I-64 have the greatest chance for accumulating snow. Keep in mind we are still days out and this will change again.

River/Creek Flooding

This is a short clip of the minor/moderate Beech Fork River, and Cartwright creek flooding on New Years Day. This occurred due to multiple days of heavy rain this past week, and from the severe weather on New Years Eve.

1080p is available on some devices, copy the link below and post to your browser.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kXsk6lYSprA