Severe Thunderstorm Watch KY, Moderate Risk farther West.

1:36 pm update
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Has Been Issued

Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

There is a 60% chance of being issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for locations in and near the blue outlined area by the Storm Prediction Center. (Has been issued see above)

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather including all modes. Specifically in North Texas, Western Oklahoma, Western Kansas, Eastern New Mexico in the Red Zone level 4/5.

 Tornado Threat

15 %

23,256

183,998

Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Guymon, OK...

Wind Threat

45 %

12,454

123,061

Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...

Hail Threat

45 %

39,461

547,126

Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...

For Kentucky, a slight risk for scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening in yellow. Damaging Winds, and perhaps some small hail are the main threats.

This is a forecast model that shows what the radar may potentially look like later today.

From PivotalWeather.com

Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather, including all modes today.

 Significant Tornado Threat 

Damaging Wind Threat  

Significant Hail Threat 

Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Likely

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watches

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare HIGH RISK level 5/5.
Significant, Violent, Long lived, Long Tracked Tornadoes are possible today especially in the HIGH RISK & MODERATE RISK areas.

 Popular cities in High Risk: Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...

Significant Tornado Threat

Day 1 Tornado Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE	118,454	5,418,989	Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...
45 %	18,894	1,405,910	Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...
30 %	25,677	574,410	Lawton, OK...Stillwater, OK...Shawnee, OK...Duncan, OK...Ada, OK...
15 %	33,227	1,600,932	Tulsa, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Broken Arrow, OK...Enid, OK...Muskogee, OK...
10 %	43,149	1,843,286	Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...
5 %	96,854	8,666,112	Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
2 %	136,492	10,013,929	Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Springfield, MO...

Significant Hail Threat 

 Significant Wind Threat

Severe Weather Episode

7:14 pm update. MCS driving Southeast this evening. Portions of Eastern KY stand the greatest chance. This is a Severe Thunderstorm that has once been capable of producing a tornado. Remain alert.

Radarscope

HRRR hinting at the potential intensification of this storm as it moves southeast.

The threat for a severe weather episode continues from the Storm Prediction Center.

Today

Wind Threat  

 Tornado Threat

 Hail Threat 

Day 2

Enhanced Risk

Includes Nebraska and Texas.

Day 3

 Probabilistic

Day 4

Includes Illinois, Indiana, Michigan.

 Day 5

Includes Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

 Day 6

Includes Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Western Kentucky, Western Tennessee, Arkansas, North West Mississippi, North Louisiana. 

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Multi-Day Severe Weather Episode

A multi-day severe weather event is possible once again. All modes of severe weather can be expected.

Click images to enlarge.

Day 4

 Day 5

Day 6

Day 7

 Day 8

I will bring updates from The National Weather Service as they upgrade or downgrade these outlooks.

Also, Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service Meteorologists for Immediate Watches and Warnings.