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Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Ice Storm Warning Wednesday-Thursday

Ice storm in progress across Kentucky.


 Current Radar



Ice Storm Warning

MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

.Significant ice accumulations are expected across much of central Kentucky today and tonight, and then expanding into south central Kentucky tonight and Thursday. To the north of the Parkways, a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected.

There still remains a bit of uncertainty on the northward extent of the most significant icing. Changes to the current warning and advisory structure may be required in future forecast updates.

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Widespread ice accumulations of a quarter to half inch, with localized amounts up to three quarters of an inch. Isolated higher amounts are possible. The heaviest ice accumulation is expected to occur south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways.

* WHERE...Much of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Today and tonight near the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, expanding into south central Kentucky tonight and Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Significant power outages and tree damage are expected due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible at times.

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. If you must use a generator for emergency power, make sure that you run the generator outside of your home...not inside your home.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit https://goky.ky.gov



Mesoscale Discussion 0067
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

   Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 101718Z - 102115Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to expand in coverage and
   intensity across portions of the Ohio river valley this afternoon.
   Freezing rain rates approaching 0.05 to 0.1 inches per hour will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...12z upper-air observations showed broad cyclonic flow
   across the northern 3rd of the CONUS with several small shortwave
   troughs embedded within this flow. Over the last 2 hours, radar data
   shows stratiform precipitation across portions of southern Illinois
   and eastern Missouri increasing in coverage/intensity likely due to
   increased isentropic and large scale ascent from one of the
   approaching shortwave troughs. Surface observations under the
   developing band of precipitation indicate freezing rain/ mist as the
   primary precipitation type across the area.

   Hi-res model guidance and observational data suggest that rain rates
   will gradually increase through the afternoon as isentropic ascent
   continues to strengthen along and north of the surface front. A few
   thunderstorms my also develop across the region with guidance
   indicating MUCAPE around 100-150 J/kg aloft. Rates may approach 0.1
   in/hr in the heaviest cores through this afternoon. Additional
   precipitation will likely expand southwestward as greater forcing
   for ascent develops aloft. Freezing rain and occasional sleet appear
   to be the most likely precipitation types through the next several
   hours given upstream and downstream RAOBS showing fairly uniform
   +1-2 C warm layers atop sub freezing surface layers.

   ..Lyons/Goss.. 02/10/2021


Majority State wide Ice Storm Warning in purple.






NWS overall thinking on ice accumulations across the state of Kentucky.





Overall Snowfall accumulations across the state.








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