WeatherGraphy™: March 2021

Saturday, March 27, 2021

Strong to Severe Storms Today

Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for a large area in yellow, a Marginal Risk in green, and an Enhanced Risk for portions of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama in orange.

Here is the tornado threat with 2% in green, 5% in brown, and 10% hatched significant in yellow.

Here are the damaging wind threats.

5% in brown, 10% in yellow, and 30% hatched significant in red, this includes portions of Arkansas, West Central Tennessee, North Miss, and North Alabama.

Here is the hail threat with

5% in brown, 10% in hatched significant in yellow, and 30% hatched significant in red, this includes portions of Arkansas, West Central Tennessee, North Miss, and North Alabama

In addition to the storms, flash flooding is possible as rounds of storms capable of producing heavy rain moves through.

The WPC has issued a Marginal Risk in green, Slight Risk in yellow and a Moderate Risk in Red

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Stay tuned to the NWS and your local Meteorologists for immediate updates for watches and warnings.

Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

This NOAA weather radio is highly recommended to get the most recent warnings issued by your local National Weather Service.

Friday, March 26, 2021

Enjoy Today, More Strong/Severe Storms Saturday

Enjoy today as a small bubble of high pressure systems moves over the area. It will be moved out my Saturday Afternoon and strong to severe storms in an isolated fashion are expected to develop. All modes are possible, but at this time a lower risk than yesterday.

Here you can see Western & Central Kentucky placed in a level 2 Slight Risk in yellow.

A marginal risk in green covers almost the rest of the state to the east.

Tornado Risk is a 2% risk in green, 5% chance in brown, and a 10% in yellow.

Here is the damaging wind threat

5% in brown, and 15% in yellow.

Here is the hail threat

5% in brown, 15% in yellow.

I will be checking model forecasts through out the day to see how much changes by tomorrow.

Stay tuned to the NWS and your local Meteorologists for immediate updates for watches and warnings.

Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

This NOAA weather radio is highly recommended to get the most recent warnings issued by your local National Weather Service.

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Tornado Watch, High, Moderate Risk Dixie Alley, Enhanced Ohio Valley

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Illinois
     Southern Indiana
     Western and Central Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri
     Northeast Mississippi
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible

Yet again we are looking at the potential for a severe weather/tornado outbreak across Dixie Alley. Some locations that seen severe weather about a week ago are again under the threat. This time it includes much more of the Ohio Valley.

Here below you can see the hatched significant 30% risk in pink, 15 percent risk for tornadoes in red, and 10 percent hatched significant in yellow. This includes portions of the following states in pink, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama. In red, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama. In orange a large swath of states which includes Kentucky, In yellow, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Here is the damaging wind threat 45% in pink, 30% hatched significant in Red.

Hail 30% hatched significant in Red.

4:57 update

3:40 pm update

Tornado watch forthcoming with an 80 percent chance of issuance. The threat for tornadoes across western Kentucky will increase during the next couple of hours.

1:54 update

With instability still in question. We are currently seeing some breaks in the clouds leading to some sunshine in some areas. This will increase instability this afternoon and evening giving fuel to developing thunderstorms. The locations with the most sunshine stand the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms.

Stay tuned to the NWS and your local Meteorologists for immediate updates for watches and warnings.

Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

This NOAA weather radio is highly recommended to get the most recent warnings issued by your local National Weather Service.

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

High & Moderate Risk for Dixie Alley

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare High Risk for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. A Moderate Risk for portions of Arkansas which includes Little Rock, Tennessee which includes Memphis, the northern half of Mississippi, NE Louisiana, and a large portion of Alabama.

All modes of severe weather can be expected in the High Risk area with strong violent tornadoes possible. Also possible in Moderate Risk area with coverage being less wide spread in the Marginal and Enhanced areas. Nonetheless, the potentials are there for locations in/near any outlined location.

Here is the tornado potential for Tomorrow

45% hatched significant in purple, 30% hatched significant in pink, 15% significant hatched in red, and 10% hatched significant in yellow. Elsewhere 5% in brown, 2% green.

What this means (ex): 15% Significant chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given location in/near the red outline.