Hot, Chance for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms

 

Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy

The NWS SPC has issued a Slight and Marginal risk across. Northern Kentucky in yellow stand the greatest chance. 2% chance for brief spin up tornadoes across the slight risk area and a 5% in the Enhanced risk area in orange off the the east coast. Damaging winds will be the primary threat at 15% in the slight risk areas.

Special Weather Statement

Temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s will combine with high humidity to make it feel like 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

Take extra precautions if working or engaging in strenuous activities outside. Drink plenty of fluids and plan rest breaks in a shaded or air conditioned environment.

Never leave people or pets unattended in a parked vehicle.

Model discrepancies

The HRRR model and the NAM 3km model are not yet agreeing on the evolution of these storms. The HRRR model has the storms dissipating as soon as the reach Kentucky while the NAM 3km brings a line of storms through most of the state from north to south.

HRRR

NAM 3km

I'll bring another update around lunch time if anything changes. Stay tuned to your local Meteorologists for immediate watches and warnings in your specific area.

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Wildfire Smoke Across Northeastern US

 Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy

Here are a couple photos that I took today of the hazy sunset along with hazy skies.

Redish Haze Sunset

Here is a picture of haze in the distance

Here is an interesting post with information from NASA Earth "Smoke Across North America

Smoke from fires raging in central and western North America has spread widely across the continent. Skies have turned hazy in cities ranging from Boston to Washington, D.C., as smoke from fires in Canada’s Manitoba and Ontario provinces poured into the U.S. Northeast.

This map shows the concentration of black carbon particulates—commonly called soot—over North America on July 21, 2021. The black carbon data come from the GEOS forward processing (GEOS-FP) model, which assimilates data from satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observing systems. To simulate black carbon, modelers include satellite observations of aerosols and fires. GEOS-FP also ingests meteorological data like air temperature, moisture, and winds to simulate the plume’s behavior.

Dense plumes of black carbon are also visible streaming from clusters of fires in British Columbia, Oregon, Washington, and California".

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148610/smoke-across-north-america

Strong to Severe Storms Today and Tomorrow

 

Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy

3:19 pm update

70 mph winds, large hail up to 2 inches, and a tornado or two.

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2:55 pm update.

80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued soon for portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Western Kentucky. 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather in Yellow, Enhanced Risk in Orange, and a Marginal Risk in Green. 

Morning showers and storms will move through and are not expected to be severe. At this time storms are packing heavy rain, and winds of around 30mph, a few lightning strikes are also occurring. 

Later this afternoon strong to severe storms are expected to develop and move through the outlined area. The greatest chance for severe weather today is within Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. 

Torrential rainfall may occur with these storms making it difficult to see while traveling. Storms today may produce 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts in severe storms.

Low tornado threat today at 2%.

Here is the damaging wind threat with 30% in red, 15% yellow, and 5% in brown.

Lastly, here is the hail threat, with portions of Oklahoma, Kansas,Missouri, and Arkansas in a 30% for large hail.

Stay tuned to local Meteorologists and weather radios for immediate severe weather warnings. 

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Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

This NOAA weather radio is highly recommended to get the most recent warnings issued by your local National Weather Service. 

Hurricane Elsa Update

Hurricane Elsa

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 Here is the cone of uncertainty issued by the National Hurricane Center. 

Tropical Storm Force Winds probability.

90% purple, 80% dark red, 70% light red, 60% orange.

Here are the current estimated arrival times. Elsa is expected to reach south Florida by late Sunday into Early Monday.

Key messages in English 

Key messages en espanol 

If you are in the path of this storm, stay abreast to your local Meteorologists and National Weather Service Meteorologists for immediate updates.

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Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

This NOAA weather radio is highly recommended to get the most recent warnings issued by your local National Weather Service.