New Year's Eve & New Year's Day Severe Weather Threat.

For Today, New Year's Eve:

The main threats for today in Central Kentucky will be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

A 60% for a severe weather watch within the next couple hours or so. Storms will ramp up by 5 am across Central Kentucky. 

There is a non zero threat for tornadoes, but these would likely be brief in nature in Kentucky.

New Year's Day:

Perhaps a more somewhat widespread severe weather event may unfold. As stated in the previous post, the Storm Prediction Center noted an upgrade was possible depending on a few factors including instability. The Slight Risk and Enhanced Risk areas have been pushed and expanded further Northeast. 

This is concerning noting the struggles ongoing in locations impacted by the December 10th tornadoes. Once again places like Mayfield, Dawson Springs, and Bowling Green Kentucky are under an Enhanced Risk threat for severe weather including tornadoes. I do feel there are enough differences between the two set ups and that it is unlikely to have a repeat of December 10th. As always we want you to be prepared, not scared. 

A few strong tornadoes will be possible in the yellow hatched significant outlined areas. Elsewhere a non zero threat of 2% in green, and 5% in brown. There could be renegade supercells developing out ahead of a squall line. The squall line could be severe and post a threat with brief spin up tornadoes.

Damaging winds threat at 30% red, 15% yellow, and 5% in brown.

The hail threat is 5% brown and 15% in yellow.

The biggest threat overall for Kentucky is the Flash flooding threat. The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk for a large area where 2-4+ inches of rain may fall.

These storms will likely be nocturnal, be sure you have a severe weather saftey plan should severe weather occur.

New Year's Eve & New Year's Day Severe Weather Threat

Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy

A Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding has been issued for majority of Kentucky. Other states include portions of Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. If you are in the Moderate risk area and live in low lying areas, have a plan to get to higher ground should flooding occur.

There is some potential for severe weather on both New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal and Slight Risk for a large swath of locations. 

There is a 5% tornado risk in brown and a 2% tornado threat in green. For Kentucky our threat for tornadoes appears low at this time, instability may be a limiting factor. Nonetheless Southern Kentucky stands the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms. 

15% chance for damaging winds in yellow, and a 5% chance for damaging winds in brown.

15% chance for large hail in yellow and 5% in brown

New Year's Day

A Marginal Risk and a Slight Risk has been posted over a large area. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be more widespread. 

A 15% chance for damaging winds in yellow, 5% in brown. Once again confidence is low on the evolution of this system. They have noted that if more ingredients materialize, a higher category outlook may be posted.

For the NWS Louisville Outlook Area:

Hydrologic Outlook

Widespread moderate to heavy rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will overspread the Ohio River Valley later Friday night through Saturday along a stalled frontal boundary. Most locations can expect to receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall during that time, however a narrower swath of 3 to 4 inches of rain is possible. The current forecast would place the heaviest rainfall south of the Ohio River across central Kentucky, although that axis can still change in the next 48 hours. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts.

Rainfall totals toward the higher end of the 2 to 4" range would likely cause some flooding concerns, especially in low lying areas and typical flood prone locations. Nighttime flooding will be particularly dangerous, especially with the holiday weekend also going on. Flood safety messaging would be recommended ahead of the expected rainfall event. As confidence increases, a Flood or Flash Flood Watch may be needed.

Overall, the month of December has seen rainfall totals near or just above average. However, rainfall between .5" and 1.25" in the last 48 hours has left soils a bit more saturated. There will be around 36 hours until the heaviest rainfall starts, so there is a bit of time for the region to dry back out a little bit.

With the current forecast of the heaviest rainfall falling across central Kentucky, the river basins most likely to be impacted would be the Green, Salt, Kentucky, and Licking river basins. Runoff would then eventually find its way into the Ohio River later next week causing rises as well. Current ensemble river forecasts do show some potential for minor flooding to be reached in the basins mentioned above, but confidence will remain low until the axis of expected heavier rain is pinpointed. Stay up to date through the weekend.

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Forecast rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible from Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* WHERE...All of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Winter Weather 

Sunday will turn cold, there is s chance for light snow showers. Any accumulations will be less than a half an inch. 

Multiday Severe Weather Potential

 There is a potential for a multiday severe weather event starting tomorrow. The outbreak looks to be over portions of Dixie Alley. States included are; Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. These states are included in the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

Portions of Western Kentucky continue their recovery efforts are now once again under a threat for severe weather. At this time places like Bowling Green and Mayfield are in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow. There will be limited instability, so severe weather will be limited. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the primary hazards there.

There is a 5% tornado risk in brown and 2% in green over a large area. 

The Storm Prediction Center is debating on an enhancement for portions of the Slight Risk area.

 There is a 15% risk for damaging winds in yellow and 5% in brown

The hail threat is also 15% risk in yellow, and 5% in brown

For day 3 instability will be lacking in most areas therefore, severe weather will be limited and isolated.

Day 4 has been highlighted for severe weather potential and we will be watching to see exactly how the severe weather ingredients line up.

There is also a slight risk highlighted for Day 5, again we will need to see how this systems evolves before getting into too much details. This bears watching for places in Southwestern Kentucky that continues their efforts to recover from tornadoes earlier this month.

Midland, MROWR120B, WR120B Weather Alert, 1, White

Record Breaking Storms Strike NE, MO, KS, IA MN, WI

A record for severe wind gusts has been broken. These storms caused the most significant 75 mph wind gusts or higher in a day since at least 2004 as noted by the Storm Prediction Center. Remember this is December and less than 2 weeks away from Christmas, this is another outstanding event to note in our history.

There were at least 21 Tornado Reports, 512/61 wind reports, some of which were hurricane force, 18/3 hail reports, some of which were up to 4 inches in diameter totaling up to 552 severe weather reports. 

Moderate Risk for Severe Weather MN, IA, WI

 The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin to a MODERATE Risk for severe weather including tornadoes, some of which could be strong today.

An Enhanced Risk includes portions of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

This is starting to be concerning as this is December, but it's starting to feel a lot like May. This is a pattern that we do not want to keep around. 

Here we can see a 10% hatched significant threat for tornadoes in the yellow hatched areas across a good portion of Iowa, SE Minnesota, and W Wisconsin. 5% chance for tornadoes in brown and 2% in green.

Damaging winds are of a significant threat today inside and outside of storms, winds  could reach up to 60-75 miles per hour. With embedded gusts reaching in the 80-100 mile per hour range with storms. 45% hatched significant threat in pink, 30% in red, 15% in yellow, and 5% in brown.

The hail threat is low at 5% in brown, hail events will be more isolated. 

The big story here is the winds and the Storm Prediction Center has noted that a strong tornado or two could occur with this system. These tornadoes would likely been nocturnal, so please have a way to be alerted and woken up should you experience severe weather.

A high wind warning has been issued for a large swath of states in the Yellow

A tornado watch has been issued 

December 10-11th Tornado Outbreak Aftermath

 These are the storm reports, there are many storm damage surveys currently ongoing and it will take days to learn all the tornado EF ratings. Currently this updated map shows at this time, at least 112 TORNADO REPORTS. 411/7 Wind Reports/HI, 25/1 Hail Reports, with a total 548 severe weather reports. 

At least 88 people have been confirmed deceased across portions of the state, the search continues. Governor Andy Beshear  declared a State of Emergency for Kentucky shortly before the storms ravaged the state.

NWS SPC

The tornado was so strong and violent, it produced ground shaking that showed up on the seismograph. Earthquake monitoring stations in the Kentucky Seismic and Strong Motion Network caught and recorded strong ground shaking and vibrations caused by the strong tornado producing storms on Friday night through Saturday Morning

A tornadic storm in Bay, Arkansas Produced Twin Tornadoes, this picture was taken by Angie Burgess.

This is a image of every single mesoscale discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center. This Collage was created by Warning Coordination Meteorologist Matt Elliott.

Below you can see the radar image of the long tracked tornado that claimed the lives of 78+ lives. The tornado hit locations like Mayfield and Dawson Springs which left them with catastrophic damage and loss of life. This quad state supercell birthed in Arkansas and traveled over 250 miles for over 4 hours through 4 states producing 2 devastating tornadoes. ( Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky).         

While the Tri State tornado record still stands, a record for Kentucky has been broken. The tornado traveled approximately 165.7 miles.

Here is a photo taken by Chris Jackson (twitter handle ChrisJacksonSC), he posted this on his twitter. This was his view of the large wedge tornado as it approached him on I-55 near mile marker 16 south of Hayti, Missouri.

This photo was taken by Eddie Knight between Mayfield and Benton

The Mayfield Tornado tragically struck the candle plant located on112 Industrial Drive causing the plant to collapse trapping at least 110 people inside. The plant was reduced to rubble as first responders scrambled to search for survivors. 8 people have been confirmed dead at the factory.

Photo shared on twitter by Duty To Warn (duty2warn)

 Here are the damage surveys currently planned by the National Weather Service in Louisville, Kentucky. This is the heart of my viewing area where I live and the long lived, long tracked tornado came close to my home and county. The tornado tracked through Ohio, Breckenridge, Meade, and Bullitt counties.  A tornado tracked 16 miles Northeast of my home and I am very fortunate to have been spared.

The Bowling Green, Kentucky Tornado

This is another a tornado that affected my College Community, Western Kentucky University. At the time I did not know whether or not my apartment would be impacted or not as I was at home with my family over the break. The EF3+ Tornado tracked near the WKU campus and later that morning I received a email from the WKU President informing us that a student had passed away off campus and that he was scheduled to graduate later that day. My heart goes out to him and his family, also to at least 11 people who have been killed in Bowling Green. The National Weather Service has confirmed 3 separate tornado touchdowns in Warren county. The search and rescue continues for many locations in the state.

Photo taken by WKU student

Photo taken by a Bowling Green resident

Here is a picture from one of the neighborhoods that was impacted, while some homes were left standing, others were reduced to rubble.

Illinois also had their share of damaging tornadoes with a couple EF3s.

Reminder, it will take several days to confirm the intensity of the tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. High end tornado rating experts are on their way to help make sure they reach the right conclusion. 

I will continue to update this blog as more updates and confirmations are reported. In the meantime here are some links to help tornado victims that I am sharing from my local news station.

https://www.wave3.com/2021/12/12/louisville-area-leaders-organizations-gathering-donations-storm-survivors/?fbclid=IwAR3PxBoeXyRLyCKKI_8gaDRd94FhM2Q4X17Xfj8rraO75hSODJu2uJELnD4