New Year's Eve & New Year's Day Severe Weather Threat.

For Today, New Year's Eve:

The main threats for today in Central Kentucky will be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

A 60% for a severe weather watch within the next couple hours or so. Storms will ramp up by 5 am across Central Kentucky. 

There is a non zero threat for tornadoes, but these would likely be brief in nature in Kentucky.

New Year's Day:

Perhaps a more somewhat widespread severe weather event may unfold. As stated in the previous post, the Storm Prediction Center noted an upgrade was possible depending on a few factors including instability. The Slight Risk and Enhanced Risk areas have been pushed and expanded further Northeast. 

This is concerning noting the struggles ongoing in locations impacted by the December 10th tornadoes. Once again places like Mayfield, Dawson Springs, and Bowling Green Kentucky are under an Enhanced Risk threat for severe weather including tornadoes. I do feel there are enough differences between the two set ups and that it is unlikely to have a repeat of December 10th. As always we want you to be prepared, not scared. 

A few strong tornadoes will be possible in the yellow hatched significant outlined areas. Elsewhere a non zero threat of 2% in green, and 5% in brown. There could be renegade supercells developing out ahead of a squall line. The squall line could be severe and post a threat with brief spin up tornadoes.

Damaging winds threat at 30% red, 15% yellow, and 5% in brown.

The hail threat is 5% brown and 15% in yellow.

The biggest threat overall for Kentucky is the Flash flooding threat. The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk for a large area where 2-4+ inches of rain may fall.

These storms will likely be nocturnal, be sure you have a severe weather saftey plan should severe weather occur.