New Year's Eve & New Year's Day Severe Weather Threat

Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy

A Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding has been issued for majority of Kentucky. Other states include portions of Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. If you are in the Moderate risk area and live in low lying areas, have a plan to get to higher ground should flooding occur.

There is some potential for severe weather on both New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal and Slight Risk for a large swath of locations. 

There is a 5% tornado risk in brown and a 2% tornado threat in green. For Kentucky our threat for tornadoes appears low at this time, instability may be a limiting factor. Nonetheless Southern Kentucky stands the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms. 

15% chance for damaging winds in yellow, and a 5% chance for damaging winds in brown.

15% chance for large hail in yellow and 5% in brown

New Year's Day

A Marginal Risk and a Slight Risk has been posted over a large area. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be more widespread. 

A 15% chance for damaging winds in yellow, 5% in brown. Once again confidence is low on the evolution of this system. They have noted that if more ingredients materialize, a higher category outlook may be posted.

For the NWS Louisville Outlook Area:

Hydrologic Outlook

Widespread moderate to heavy rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will overspread the Ohio River Valley later Friday night through Saturday along a stalled frontal boundary. Most locations can expect to receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall during that time, however a narrower swath of 3 to 4 inches of rain is possible. The current forecast would place the heaviest rainfall south of the Ohio River across central Kentucky, although that axis can still change in the next 48 hours. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts.

Rainfall totals toward the higher end of the 2 to 4" range would likely cause some flooding concerns, especially in low lying areas and typical flood prone locations. Nighttime flooding will be particularly dangerous, especially with the holiday weekend also going on. Flood safety messaging would be recommended ahead of the expected rainfall event. As confidence increases, a Flood or Flash Flood Watch may be needed.

Overall, the month of December has seen rainfall totals near or just above average. However, rainfall between .5" and 1.25" in the last 48 hours has left soils a bit more saturated. There will be around 36 hours until the heaviest rainfall starts, so there is a bit of time for the region to dry back out a little bit.

With the current forecast of the heaviest rainfall falling across central Kentucky, the river basins most likely to be impacted would be the Green, Salt, Kentucky, and Licking river basins. Runoff would then eventually find its way into the Ohio River later next week causing rises as well. Current ensemble river forecasts do show some potential for minor flooding to be reached in the basins mentioned above, but confidence will remain low until the axis of expected heavier rain is pinpointed. Stay up to date through the weekend.

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Forecast rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible from Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* WHERE...All of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Winter Weather 

Sunday will turn cold, there is s chance for light snow showers. Any accumulations will be less than a half an inch.