Tornado Watch, Severe Weather Outbreak Tonight Saturday Morning

 A severe weather Outbreak, including tornadoes will be possible Friday through Friday night across a large area. Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected in the Enhanced Risk area with all modes possible. We will have enough MLCAPE to support severe thunderstorms in the 500-1500 j/kg range. Strong forcing and mid level height falls along with deep layer shear will also help lead to severe thunderstorms with updrafts, especially in the Enhanced Risk areas. A MODERATE RISK has been issued for portions of Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Tennessee and Western Kentucky. 

A hatched signficant tornado threat can be seen for areas in the 15% hatched significant in red locations, yellow 10% hatched area, 5% in brown, and 2% in green. For locations that are close to the hatched Significant areas, pay close attention to the storms and have a way to be alerted.

Here is the damaging wind threat with 30% in red, 15% in yellow, and 5% in brown.

Here is the hail threat, large hail incident will be isolated. 15% yellow and 5% brown.

The HRRR model will fluctuate a bit with each run and it may or may not be correct with thunderstorm placement. What this does show is individual storms (supercells) which will pose a threat for tornadoes. It shows storms popping ahead of the the main line of storms.

This run shows storms congealing into a squall line and they will then pose a threat for spin up qcls tornadoes.

 tornado watches have been issued

Stay abreast to your local Meteorologists and make sure you have a way to recieve warnings and be woken up before being impacted by a tornadic storm. This will be a nocturnal severe weather event.

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