Severe weather is possible on Monday and Tuesday.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday in parts of East Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. All modes of severe weather including a few strong tornadoes is possible. A Slight Risk has been placed over a swath of states from portions of the Ohio Valley to portions of Dixie Alley.
Monday
Merry Christmas everybody, I hope your White Christmas is merry and bright. ❄
A clipper system diving in from the Northwest will bring light accumulating snow Late tonight/early am hours. Snow accumulations up to 2 inches is possible with most locations receiving around an inch or so.
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My heart and condolences go out to families who've lost loved ones during the blizzard and cold weather.
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Confidence is increasing for accumulating snow late this evening until after midnight. Rain will quickly change to snow with the passing of the artic front bringing accumulating snows. Snowfall totals are expected to be in the 1-4 inches range with locally higher amounts 4-6". The big story that remains is the brutally cold temperatures and dangerous life threatening wind chills. The lows tonight are likely to reach single digits and may even go negative a few degrees.
I like to look at the HRRR model which we can now do because the storm is about 48 hours out. This model updates each hour and will adjust to current conditions in the atmosphere, and will then make a prediction. This model is showing a swath of 3 to 6 across the state. Will continue to watch to see how these models trend throughout the day, they will likely teeter up until hours before the storm before settling on an agreement based on the conditions.
Strong winds are another factor that will make difficult travel and dangerous conditions. Near blizzard conditions are expected with winds that could gust up to 50 mph in some areas. This wind will lead to blowing snow lessening visibility and cause snow to drift.
If you must travel take extra precautions, make sure you are prepared in case of an emergency. Take extra blankets, clothing, food, and have a safety plan should you break down in the cold.
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Wind Chill Warning
* WHAT...Wind Chill Warning for dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills of -25 to -30 below zero. Winter Weather Advisory for snow. Total snow accumulations of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph expected.
* WHERE...All of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
* WHEN...Wind Chill Warning is in effect from 10 PM EST tonight through 1 PM EST Friday. The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM EST tonight through 1 PM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Slick roads are expected this evening and through the day on Friday. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility in some areas. The cold wind chills can cause frostbite on exposed skin in less than 30 minutes.
Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org.
In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
Winter Storm Warning
* WHAT...Total snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches, locally up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph, resulting in near blizzard conditions at times, and dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero.
* WHERE...Southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
* WHEN...This evening through Friday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Hazardous travel conditions could impact the Friday morning The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in less than 30 minutes.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
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Good morning everybody, as models become more in agreement we can look forward to below normal temperatures in the next couple of weeks. Temperatures could very well drop into the single digits with negative wind chills over a large area. The CPC has highlighted in dark purple areas that will see below normal temperatures in the near future. Even the Mississippi Valley will experience below normal temperatures. Now would be a good time to prepare to travel in cold temperatures if you have holiday plans. Pack your vehicles, with blankets and non perishable goods. It is too early to call for snow at this time, but that could change. Over the next 14 days, the Ohio and Mississippi Valley will be below normal and that is the biggest take away. Do not forget to bring in your pets as these temperatures will be too cold for many.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Western Kentucky and Northwestern Tennessee in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Small hail, damaging winds, and a brief isolated tornado or two is possible over the Marginal Risk Area. A 2% tornado threat and a 5% damaging wind threat.
Radar
A Moderate Risk for all modes of severe weather has been issued for portions of Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. A tornado outbreaks is possible in the Lower Mississippi Valley Tomorrow afternoon and evening.
15% threat for tornadoes in red, 10% in yellow, 5% in brown, and 2% in green. Significant tornadoes, long lived and long tracked tornadoes will be possible especially within the 10-15% tornado risk area.
Minor snow accumulations are expected Saturday morning in portions of the Ohio Valley.
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Special Weather Statement
Minor snow accumulations are expected across portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky Saturday morning. Snow amounts of a dusting to one inch will be possible, mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Within any heavier snow bands, brief covering of roadways will be possible. Slick spots may develop, especially on bridges and overpasses.
At least 19 tornadoes touched down yesterday and last night across three states. Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Tornado Emergencies and Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado warnings were issued. These tornadoes were very large and destructive taking on wedge shaped appearances. The images coming out of some of the hardest hit areas appear to show at least EF3+ damage. Homes were completed destroy and some trees took on a sawed off appearance. This blog will be updated as more information comes out, my thoughts, and prayers go out to everyone who lost their lives and their homes.
Wind Advisory
Windy Saturday
A strong low pressure system over the Missouri Valley will deepen
and cause quite a pressure gradient during portions of Saturday.
expect southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 to 40
mph. The strong winds will start at daybreak and last into the mid
afternoon.
Winds across Southern Indiana could gust above 40 mph during the
late morning into very early afternoon.
Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Winds this strong
can make driving challenging, especially for high profile
vehicles.
There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The threat is a little higher in the Slight Risk in the south. Portions of Alabama and Mississippi are in a 5% tornado threat.
Fire weather threat continues, please check with your county to see if you are under a burn ban. Please refrain from burning.
Special Weather Statement
Gusty south winds are expected to increase through the late morning and early afternoon. Afternoon wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph are expected. Dry air mix down will result in lower relative humidity this afternoon, possibly as low as 25 to 30 percent in the afternoon. Combined with ongoing moderate drought conditions, an elevated fire danger risk is expected today.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MOST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY... The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. A Red Flag Warning also remains in effect until 8 PM today. * WIND...From the west between 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph through early this evening. Winds from the southwest between 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph Friday afternoon. * HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidities of 18 to 23 percent Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...any fires that start will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning should not be done. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
There's potential for strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. There is a 2% chance for a tornado, 5% chance for damaging winds, and a 5% chance for hail.
Freeze Warning
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Freeze Watch
* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and east central, north central, northwest and south central Kentucky.
* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could have impacts on agricultural and horticultural interests. Vegetation sensitive to frost and freeze may be damaged or killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.
Frost Advisory
* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and east central, north central, northwest and south central Kentucky.
* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could have impacts on agricultural and horticultural interests. Vegetation sensitive to frost and freeze may be damaged or killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from Frost Advisory
* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and east central, north central, northwest and south central Kentucky.
* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could have impacts on agricultural and horticultural interests. Vegetation sensitive to frost and freeze may be damaged or killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.
freezing.
Hurricane Ian became a category 4 hurricane overnight and hurricane hunters have found the pressure has gone down (937mb) and the winds have come up once more (155 mph) bringing Ian to a high end category 4 hurricane. Keep in mind that 157 mph winds would make this a category 5 hurricane.
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| Tropical Tidbits |
Here is the latest forecast cone from the NHC showing Hurricane Ian close to its arrival in Florida. The time to evacuate if told to do so is running out as conditions will rapidly deteriorate as the hours pass by. It is moving north northeast at 9 miles per hour.
Hurricane Ian intensified into a Major Category Hurricane overnight. Ian is now a Cat 3 with 125 sustained mph winds moving north at 25 mph. It is currently exiting Cuba after it made landfall.
Tropical Storm Ian has some potential to become a Major Hurricane on Tuesday impacting western Cuba before making a possible landfall in Florida. Due to inconsistencies within the current forecast models, the exact track and intensity upon arrival is uncertain. Locations in and near the cone of uncertainty should prepare for a hurricane and stay tuned to your local government officials for any potential future evacuations should there be any.
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| Tropical Tidbits |
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening with multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms that are expected to develop and move across Kentucky. The storm prediction center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday. A 2% chance for a tornado threat in green and a 5% damaging wind threat in brown. The hail threat is relatively low for everyone and would be scattered in nature.
Here is the link to continue to provide donations to the flood victims of Eastern Kentucky
This fund was created by the governor, Andy Beshear.
https://secure.kentucky.gov/FormServices/Finance/EKYFloodRelief
The Death Toll is 39.
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| Garrett, Kentucky Michael Clevenger and Scott Utterback, Louisville Courier Journal |
A Flood Watch has been issued
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Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across most of Kentucky
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