Winter Weather Afternoon Update

The National Weather Service has extended the Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm EST/9pm CST. 

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Locally intense snow showers with reductions in visibilities to below a mile.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana, and most of central Kentucky east of Interstate 65.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Intense snowfall rates will reduce visibilities and could create slick conditions on some roadways. The commute home will be negatively impacted.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be alert for changes in visibilities and road surface conditions. Slow down and leave extra space to vehicles around you.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

A Special Weather Statement has been issued for a snow squall.

Special Weather Statement

HAZARDS...A snow squall accompanied by winds of up to 25 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than one mile. This squall is producing brief heavy snow at the rate of 1 inch per hour.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 348 PM EST, a snow squall was over Bardstown moving southeast at 20 MPH.

THIS SQUALL WILL BE NEAR... Springfield around 440 PM EST.

SAFETY INFO... Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Winter Weather Advisory for Gusty Winds & Snow

In purple:

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Scattered Snow Bursts with reductions in visibilities to below a mile.

* WHERE...South of Bedford to English line to east of I 65 to west of I 75.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Snow bursts will drop visibilities significantly, and along with winds of 10 to 20 mph will create travel problems during the commute home. Be prepared for a sudden drop in visibility from these scattered snow showers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Slow down if you encounter a burst of snow slow down immediately but do not slam on your brakes.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

In tan: 

Special Weather Statement

HAZARDS...A band of snow accompanied by winds of 20 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than one mile.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 909 AM EST, a band of snow was along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Williamstown to 9 miles northeast of Elizabethtown and moving southeast at 20 MPH.

THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEAR... Frankfort, Bardstown, and Cynthiana around 945 AM EST. Lexington, Lebanon, and Springfield around 1030 AM EST.

SAFETY INFO... Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Accumulating snow Tonight-Thursday Morning

 A rain to snow event is likely tonigh. Rain will transition to snow as temperatures continue to drop. Almost all of Kentucky is under a Winter Weather Advisory in purple. Locations in Eastern Kentucky stand the greatest chance for higher accumulations at this time.

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches in most locations, possibly locally two to four inches in the southern Blue Grass. A light glaze of ice may be possible as well.

* WHERE...Central Kentucky and far southern Indiana.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions due to icy or snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds out of the north may gust to around 20 mph and will bring wind chills down into the 5 to 15 degree range by morning.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit https://pws.trafficwise.org. In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Rain to Snow Wednesday Night

 There is a chance for a rain to snow maker on Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Accumulations look to be light across most of the area. Locally higher amounts are possible where the deformation band sets up, and how fast a location changes from rain to snow. The American models are in agreement, but the European model is very conservative in amounts.  

Winter Weather Sunday

 The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Central Kentucky.

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Sunday to 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel could become difficult.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Potential System This Weekend

 There is some potential for snow showers or perhaps a winter storm somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee Valley or both down the line on Saturday and Sunday. There's a chance the snow could be cut down by sleet or freezing rain this weekend. Nonetheless the WPC has issued a couple outlooks. 

Saturday 

Snow on Saturday will be relatively light and up to an inch in some areas is possible.

Sunday

The best chance for snow arrives on Sunday and may last through Monday. Accumulating snow is possible depending on the final track and where the deformation band sets up. The WPC has increased the chances for Central and Eastern Kentucky to 50-70%. 

Probability for greater than or equal to 1"

Probably of greater than or equal to 2"

Low probability of greater than or equal to 4"

We will continue to watch the system and the track of the low for Saturday through Sunday Night, for now we take it one run and day at a time.

Winter Storm This Afternoon

Snow totals from the winter storm that swept through the State on Thursday. 

A State of Emergency has been declared due to heavy snowfall and traffic collisions and pileups. 

Introducing Amazon Smart Air Quality Monitor https://amzn.to/3G9n48t

A Winter Storm is likely to move over the state within the next several hours dropping up to over a half a foot for some locations. A large portion of the State is under a Winter Storm Warning in Pink and the rest is under A Winter Weather Advisory in Purple. The latest forecast models has increased the snowfall totals quite a bit compared to yesterday and brought it more North.

4-6 Central, 6-8 Southeast with locally higher amounts as noted by the NWS Louisville.

The WPC now gives a large chunk of Kentucky a 70+% chance of accumulating greater than or equal to 4 inches of snowfall in red, especially across the warned area. 10% in Blue, and 40% in green.

A look at the statewide winter storm and winter weather advisories.

For Cental Kentucky 

Winter Storm Warning (pink)

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Winter Weather Advisory (purple)

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky north of the Western Kentucky and Blue Grass Parkways.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit https://pws.trafficwise.org/pws

In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Please stay off the roads today if you can. If you must travel, take extra blankets and non perishable food in the instance you are stuck in traffic for a long period of time. Be sure to check with your local Meteorologists for more specific weather information in your county. 

Winter Storm Warning, Accumulating Snow Tomorrow

 Many will see snow tomorrow, but not all snow lovers will be satisfied. Discrepancies still remain in the 24-48 period. Two things to focus on is the speed in which the snow moves though, and how phasing evolves. Location closest to the phasing will see the most snow. 

WINTER STORM WARNING Pink

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY purple IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THURSDAY... 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky north of the Western Kentucky and Blue Grass Parkways. 

* WHEN...Snow beginning mid to late morning. Peak snowfall between noon and 6 PM. 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

The probabilistic snowfall experiment shows a swath of 4-6 Along a line from Lexington to Bowling Green. Much higher totals will be in Eastern Kentucky. 

Central Kentucky of 10% for greater than or equal to 4 inches outlined in Blue.

The most difficult part about snow is figuring out where the heavy snowbands or deformation band sets up. While most of the band will be mild, portions of the band will have pockets of moderate heavy snow. If the snow moves through fast, less totals. If it moves through slower, higher totals. Once we get to where the event is 6-12 hours out, we will have a better understanding of who may see the most snow. If you have plans to travel, be sure to check the weather before you go, also take some non perishable foods and extra jackets or blankets incase you get stuck in traffic.

Accumulating Snow Likely On Thursday

 While it is still too early to nail down snowfall accumulation amounts across specific locations, a system is expected to being some snow to the area. Some models are showing storm level criteria, while one model is holding out with none at all.

Nonetheless, the WPC has placed most of Kentucky in a 40-70% of receiving greater than or equal to 4 inches of snowfall in green.

Looking at the individual chances ins gifs from the wpc for snow, 1-4 inches as seen below.

There is currently about a 80-90% chance we'll see greather than or equal to 1"

Here it shows about a 70-80% chance of seeing greather than or equal to 2 inches of snow.

Below shows a 40-50% chance of seeing greather than or equal to 4 inches of snow and I'll stop there because it's still too early to look beyond the chance of recieving more than 4" at this time. 

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Special Weather Statement. 

Special Weather Statement:

A system may bring light snowfall to the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures during the day on Thursday should be below freezing across the area, so accumulations will be possible shortly after the onset of snowfall. Travel impacts would be most likely during midday and evening commutes on Thursday, with lingering black ice possible Friday morning.

The coldest air of the season up to this point will follow in the wake of the system Friday morning, with wind chills in the single digits expected.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system, and the forecast will be refined further over the coming days. Stay tuned for updates as new information comes in.

New Year's Day Aftermath

Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy 

There was a smaller scale outbreak that occurred New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

Approximately 7 tornadoes causing mild to moderate damage touched down in the State of Kentucky pending two more surveys to be completed later Today. 6 Tornado, 68 wind, and 6 hail reports occurred on New Year's Day. Warren County Kentucky was affected by a tornado, but it did not hit the same areas affected by the December 10/11th tornadoes.

Most of these tornadoes ranged from EF0-EF1 except for the Christian County tornado which was rated an EF2 with winds up to 125 mph.

Light Snow Tonight

Good Sunday Morning, snow will be welcome to many areas looking to get a break from severe thunderstorms. Eastern Kentucky and points south stand the greatest chance for accumulating snow about 3-5 inches locally more in the mountains. 

For Central Kentucky we will see mostly flurries to a dusting at most locally some may see up to an inch.

Looking at pivotalweather.com total accumulated snowfall with the HRRR model, these are estimations about how much may fall. Take a look at how far south this system brings snow accumulations to. States like Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.

Cold weather is here to stay for the week across Kentucky with freezing low temperatures. 

Looking ahead

Models have been coming into an agreement about a system that may bring accumulating snow to most of the state by day 5. However, it is way too early to talk about snowfall accumulation ranges.