Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Rain & Sleet

 Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (purple) have been issued by the National Weather Services.

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations around a tenth of an inch possible, along with a dusting of sleet accumulation.

* WHERE...Portions of and south central Indiana and east central, north central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on a few slippery spots on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice is most likely to accumulate on elevated surfaces such as trees, decks, and cars, and slick spots should mainly be confined to bridges, overpasses, untreated roads, and sheltered areas.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

 

There is potential for significant icing across portions of SE Oklahoma, Arkansas, SE Missouri, NW Tennessee, and Western Kentucky where there is a 20-40% chance that some locations especially in Arkansas may see up to or more than 1/2" of icing from freezing rain.

Below you can see the chance for greater than or equal to 0.01" of icing from Texas to Kentucky.

Monday Night -Tuesday Severe Weather, Flooding & Winter Weather Threats

There is potential for severe weather Monday and Monday Night across the Yellow Slight Risk and Green Marginal Risk areas. 

Here you can see where the low tornado threats are across portion of Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, Western Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Louisiana.

There is also potential for Tuesday as well across the Yellow Slight Risk and Green Marginal Risk areas.

Here is the tornado threat for Tuesday 5% in Brown, 2% in Green

Flood Threat

Locations highlighted in the Red Moderate Risk stand the greatest threat from flooding on Tuesday. Flooding is also possible in the Slight Risk area.

A Flood Watch has been issued

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Indiana and Kentucky, including the following counties, in Indiana, Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott and Washington. In Kentucky, Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Casey, Clark, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Harrison, Hart, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Larue, Lincoln, Logan, Madison, Marion, Meade, Mercer, Metcalfe, Monroe, Nelson, Nicholas, Ohio, Oldham, Russell, Scott, Shelby, Simpson, Spencer, Taylor, Trimble, Warren, Washington and Woodford.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Winter Weather Central Kentucky

There is the potential for some rain to snow minor accumulations on Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning. Locations farther to the North and West stand the greatest chance for accumulating ice and snow where a potential ice storm sets up later this week.

Flooding Likely Next Week

 

Hydrologic Outlook

RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE WEEK...

Heavy rains on Thursday left us with very high moisture levels in the top six feet of our soil, especially across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. While surface soils will benefit from dry weather today and Sunday, deeper soils will be slower to lose their moisture.

A slow-moving system will interact with a rich moisture supply Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in widespread rain and possibly heavy precipitation. Bands of moderate to heavy rainfall may result in areal flooding as soils recharge.

Additional waves of precipitation, though likely not as heavy as what we are expecting on Tuesday, will add to rainfall totals Wednesday night through Friday. These events following the Tuesday rain will encourage river flooding.

Although the heaviest rainfall amounts this week are expected to fall just south of where the heaviest rain fell this past Thursday, all river basins are under a threat of at least minor flooding by mid to late week.

Tuesday through Friday rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are currently in the forecast, with amounts increasing from north to south. About half of that is expected to fall on Tuesday.

We still have a few days before these systems arrive, and changes in the forecast are certainly possible. Be sure to stay up-to- date over the holiday weekend as new outlooks are issued, especially if you have interests in flood plains or along streams, including the Ohio River.

Winter Weather Disturbance Thursday-Friday

 Heavy rainfall from yesterday's storms producing wide spread 2-3 inches. It has lead to some flooding with more rainfall on the way from Monday to Tuesday night and then Rain on Thursday turning to some snow Thursday Night to Friday. 

The WPC has highlighted a potential for greater than or equal to a quarter of an inch of winter precipitation. 

With this system being exactly 7 days out, expect some changes to the forecast as we move forward and all the pieces come together. 

Strong to severe storms likely on Today

Strong to severe storms are possible on this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for almost all of Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Southeast Ohio, Southeast Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama where severe weather will more likely. A Marginal Risk in green covers a large swath of States. All severe modes will be possible. 

Significant 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given location for portions of West Central Tennessee, Mississippi, and North West Alabama. 5% in Brown, and 2% in Green.

30% in Red, 15% chance for damaging wind gusts in Yellow and 5% in Brown.

Low chance for severe hail at 5%

Winds at the surface Today will be strong outside and ahead of thunderstorms. A Wind Advisory has been issued and remains in effect: 

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...South winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 700 AM to 700 PM EST Wednesday, Then From 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Weakened trees and tree limbs could be blown down and cause a few power outages in spots.

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle on an east west highway. Secure outdoor objects.

Use extra caution when driving on Thursday, especially if operating a high profile vehicle on Interstate 64 and 71. Secure outdoor objects.

Here is what the HRRR Model on Pivotal Weather shows evolving. Some of these storms may have the potential to drop a brief qlcs tornado or two. The lack of instability will likely prevent any wide spread rotating storms, but there is plenty of shear for them to tap into.

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, northwest Kentucky and south central Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Anderson, Franklin, Harrison, Scott and Woodford. In north central Kentucky, Bullitt, Hardin, Larue, Nelson, Shelby and Spencer. In northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In south central Kentucky, Grayson.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM CST/9 PM EST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Radar

Stay tuned to you local Meteorologists for immediate broadcasts for watches and warnings tomorrow.

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Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

This NOAA weather radio is highly recommended to get the most recent warnings issued by your local National Weather Service. 

Severe Weather Potential Wednesday & Thursday

 The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana in a 15% Slight Risk for severe weather on Wednesday of next week. This could be upgraded as time gets closer.

A 15% Slight Risk has been issued for portions of Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana for Thursday.

Ice storm in progress

A storm system is currently bringing accumulating snow and ice across over 100 million people across the United States. 2100 miles of winter weather alerts light up the map as seen below, we even have a tornado warning in Alabama.

Purple are Winter Weather Advisories 

Pink are Winter Storm Warnings

Dark Purple are Ice Storm Warnings.

The timing for Central/Southern Kentucky has changed just a little. Rain is expected to transition to freezing rain by 6:00 pm est. .25 to .75 inches of ice is still probable across the area. The ice storm warning remains in effect until 7 am est Friday morning.

Be prepared for falling trees and powerlines, winds will be picking up by evening. Wind gusts around 25 mph will help aid in falling lines and trees if they are weighed down with ice.

Approximately 19,162 Kentickians are without power in Western Kentucky from the accumulating ice. Reminder, never run a generator inside or within a few feet your home. Never keep your car running in a closed garage. If you lose power and do not have a generator, come up with a common area to huddle in. Close doors to rooms that are not occupied to keep warmth. Wrap yourselves with blankets and wear layers of clothing. Be mindful and watch burning candles.

Winter & Ice Storm on Thursday

 We have been watching this system for days now and we are at the time frame where we can increase our confidence in precipitation types. An Ice Storm Warning has been issued for Central Kentucky.  There still remains some uncertainty about how long precipitation types will fall in each stage. Keep in mind it can go 1 of 2 ways. One way is that we can have lower ice totals due to a faster transition to sleet/snow, or we could end up with higher ice totals if we get stuck in the 2nd phase. This will be better fine tuned later today and tomorrow. 

Ice Storm Warning

* WHAT...Significant icing is expected. Ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch are expected. In addition, up to an inch of sleet and snow will be possible.

* WHERE...Much of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Scattered power outages and tree damage will be possible due to the ice. Travel will be extremely hazardous and could be impossible at times.

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

The WPC has highlighted portions of Kentucky in a 40% chance of accumulating greather than it equal to .25 inches of ice from freezing rain.

Prepare now, preparations should be done by tonight! Prepare in case of power outages, charge your devices and make sure you have enough supplies and food. Avoid travel unless absolutely necessary on Thursday and Thursday Night. If you must travel, make sure to take additional jackets, blankets, and non perishable foods.

Im seeing a lot of ice storm anxiety, maybe this will help. In 8 days it will be the 1 year anniversary of the February 10th, 2021 Ice Storm. I see some similarities only a little more ice is forecast this time, so this storm will be a little worse than that, but no where near as much as the January 26th, 2009 storm (on my bday) which produced at least 2.5 inches of ice with a foot of snow. The storm as the weather channel named it shirley produced .40 to .60" of ice across the state. There is potential for some locations to top these numbers at .50 to .75+. The state as a whole will have a large range gap .25 to .75+

Uncertainty remains and you really need to pay attention to Meteorologist who will be Nowcasting tomorrow because there's four phases that we will go through and we will not know how fast we will get through each stage which is rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to snow. A longer time in freezing rain more ice, less time, less ice etc and vice versa.

Here's that storm in blogs and pictures: 

https://www.weathergraphy.com/2021/02/significant-winter-weather-midweek.html

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLK70MTsoDe/?utm_medium=copy_link

Winter & Ice Storm Potential

Forecast models are beginning to come into agreement with the placement of winter precipitation types. There is some potential for heavy freezing rain/sleet to snow Thursday night as moisture and arctic air dives through our region. 

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings has been issued for Millions. The father Northwest you are, the more snow, the farther south and east the more rain and heavy freezing rain potential. 

For Central Kentucky 

Winter Storm Watch

* WHAT...Heavy freezing rain changing to sleet and snow. Total ice accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch. Total snow and sleet accumulations of several inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the freezing rain. Slippery road conditions due to sleet and snow will be possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Plan on very difficult travel conditions.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Ice potential 

The WPC has issued a 10% chance of accumulating greater than or equal to .25 (quarter of an inch of freezing rain) which is more than enough to start causing problems.

 

More updates to come later, in the meantime be sure you will have everything you need in the instance of an ice storm