WeatherGraphy™: Strong to severe storms likely on Today

Strong to severe storms are possible on this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for almost all of Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Southeast Ohio, Southeast Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama where severe weather will more likely. A Marginal Risk in green covers a large swath of States. All severe modes will be possible.

Significant 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given location for portions of West Central Tennessee, Mississippi, and North West Alabama. 5% in Brown, and 2% in Green.

30% in Red, 15% chance for damaging wind gusts in Yellow and 5% in Brown.

Low chance for severe hail at 5%

Winds at the surface Today will be strong outside and ahead of thunderstorms. A Wind Advisory has been issued and remains in effect:

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...South winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 700 AM to 700 PM EST Wednesday, Then From 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Weakened trees and tree limbs could be blown down and cause a few power outages in spots.

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle on an east west highway. Secure outdoor objects.

Use extra caution when driving on Thursday, especially if operating a high profile vehicle on Interstate 64 and 71. Secure outdoor objects.

Here is what the HRRR Model on Pivotal Weather shows evolving. Some of these storms may have the potential to drop a brief qlcs tornado or two. The lack of instability will likely prevent any wide spread rotating storms, but there is plenty of shear for them to tap into.

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, northwest Kentucky and south central Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Anderson, Franklin, Harrison, Scott and Woodford. In north central Kentucky, Bullitt, Hardin, Larue, Nelson, Shelby and Spencer. In northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In south central Kentucky, Grayson.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM CST/9 PM EST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

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