Severe Weather Outbreak Today

 

High Wind Warning

* WHAT...Brief period of wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky east of I-65.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight.

* IMPACTS...Large trees or limbs could be blown down and power outages may result.

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle on east-west roads. Secure outdoor objects.

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

Jefferson-Clark-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby- Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon- Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Madison, Jeffersonville, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany

Severe Weather Outbreak in progress in the South. There are current tornado watches and warnings in effect at this time. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk area to include more of Western Kentucky. The Moderate Risk includes the entire state of Mississippi, Westen Tennessee, Southeast Arkansas, Northeast Louisiana, and West and South Central Alabama. 

Large Hatched Significant 15% Tornado Threat in Red. Hatched Significant 10% in yellow. 5% in brown, and 2% in green.

Damaging winds are a significant threat today at 45% hatched Significant in the South in pink and 30% hatched Significant in red.

Hail is of a lesser threat today, but nonetheless a none zero threat. 

Most of the qcls tornadoes today will be located within a severe squall line and may be obscured by rain. 

Here is how the HRRR on Pivotalweather.com seeing the squall line evolving. 

For Central Kentucky storms will start to move through the area by 9:00 pm and push east. Damaging winds are the greatest threat as the line will be in a weakening state. Brief isolated tornadoes are still possible. The greatest threat will be west of I-65 within the Enhanced Risk area. 

There is a fire danger in Central and especially Eastern Kentucky. Due to the combination of relative humidity and strong winds, please refrain from burning today.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA

CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 29 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT HARDIN HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE MEADE NELSON OLDHAM SHELBY SPENCER TRIMBLE WASHINGTON

IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY

HANCOCK OHIO

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

GRAYSON GREEN HART LOGAN MARION TAYLOR

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

ALLEN BARREN BUTLER EDMONSON METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON WARREN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDSTOWN, BEDFORD, BOWLING GREEN, BRANDENBURG, BROWNSVILLE, CAMPBELLSVILLE, CORYDON, EDMONTON, ELIZABETHTOWN, ENGLISH, FRANKLIN, GLASGOW, GREENSBURG, HARDINSBURG, HARTFORD, HAWESVILLE, HODGENVILLE, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, LA GRANGE, LEBANON, LEITCHFIELD, LEWISPORT, LOUISVILLE, MADISON, MORGANTOWN, MUNFORDVILLE, NEW ALBANY, NEW CASTLE, PAOLI, PROVIDENCE, RUSSELLVILLE, SALEM, SCOTTSBURG, SCOTTSVILLE, SHELBYVILLE, SHEPHERDSVILLE, SPRINGFIELD, TAYLORSVILLE, TELL CITY, AND TOMPKINSVILLE.

Moderate Risk Wednesday

There is a Moderate Risk for severe weather tomorrow for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Elsewhere a large area of people are under a threat for severe weather in the Orange Enhanced Risk, and Yellow Slight Risk Area. All modes of severe weather is possible in the Red moderate risk area with a 30% hatched significant threat for tornadoes across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. There is a 15% hatched significant threat for tornadoes in the Enhanced Risk area. A 5% in brown and a 2% in green.

There is a hatched significant  45% chance for very strong and dangerous winds with these storms across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama and a 30% hatched significant in red. 

Back to back Moderate Risk Days

Tornado season is in full swing on Day two of the Spring Season. 

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of Texas to a Moderate Risk for all modes in red.

Hatched significant 10% in yellow, and 15% in red tornado threat for portions of Texas.

Hatched significant 45% threat for damaging winds in pink.

45%  Hatched significant hail thread in pink.

45% Hatched significant threat for hail also in pink.

Day two, tomorrow. Yet another Moderate Risk has been issued and this one was issued three days out.

Tornado Threat: 2% Green, 5% Brown, hatched significant 15% yellow, 30% hatched significant in red.

Damaging Wind Threat: 5% brown, 15% yellow, 30% red.

Hail Threat: 5% Brown, 15% Yellow, and 30% Red.

Stay tuned to your local Meteorologists for immediate broadcasts of watches and warnings.

Moderate Risk in Louisiana & Mississippi on Tuesday

 Severe weather will all modes including the potential for strong tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday. The SPC has confidence that widespread severe weather is likely. They have introduced a 45% significant hatched probability at three days out.

Strong to Severe Storms Today

 There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorm developments this afternoon and evening across Western and Central Kentucky. Damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two may be possible depending on where the best instability is. The greatest threat for severe weather with all modes will be in the South where a 10% hatched significant threat for tornadoes has been introduced for Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A tornado watch is already in effect for potions of Southern Mississippi and Alabama where severe weather is currently on going. Portions of Far Southeastern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, Western Georgia, and portions of the Florida Panhandle are in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather Today.

Legend:

Tornado: 10% Yellow Hatched, 5% Brown, 2% Green

Wind: 30% Red, 15% Yellow, 5% Brown

Hail: 15% Yellow, 5% Brown

An EF1 Tornado Touched Down in Hardin County 

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Friday

 There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center now has a Yellow Slight Risk listed for Portions of Western and Central Kentucky, Southern Indiana, NW Tennessee, Southeast Illinois, and Far Southeast Missouri. 

The Tornado Threat is 5% in brown over the Slight Risk areas and 2% in green over the Marginal Risk areas. 

Damaging Winds and Hail are a 15% in the Slight Risk and 5% in the Marginal Risk. 

Scattered Strong to Severe storms are probable tomorrow afternoon and evening. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model on Pivotalweather shows scattered strong storms developing. A tornado or two may be possible with these isolated cells.

Strong Storms Possible Friday

 There is a Marginal Risk for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed almost the entire state of Kentucky under a Marginal Risk. The greatest threats will be damaging winds and heavy rain.

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Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

Winter Storm Tonight

 Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky in Pink with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in Purple Across the rest of the state. The Warnings and Advisories stretch across a large portion of the Eastern US and the Southern Plains.

For Western and Central Kentucky 

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and portions of west-central and western Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions Friday evening and Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds between 25 and 30 mph could cause some blowing snow early Saturday morning. Wind chills will drop to the single digits Saturday morning.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

For Eastern Kentucky 

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Rain will develop and change to snow tonight. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches will occur, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...The Winter Storm Warning is for portions of east central, south central and southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...The Winter Storm Warning is in effect from midnight tonight to 5 PM Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel may become very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Warm ground temperatures will hinder snow accumulation. However, heavy snowfall rates will overcome the initial melting and allow the snow to accumulate.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Probabilistics: 

Here is what pivotalweather.com HRRR model shows potentially accumulating tonight.

Winter Storm Likely Friday Night to Monday Morning

 Confidence is increasing in the potential for accumulating snow Friday night through Monday Morning. At this time Eastern Kentucky appears to be where the heaviest snow of up to 8"+ will fall. Central Kentucky may see up to 4"+ The models are in agreement with snow moving in Friday Night and sweeping across the state, what is not set in stone is the amounts. 

The WPC now has Central Kentucky in a 40% chance of seeing accumulating snow greater than or equal to 4 inches in blue. Eastern Kentucky is highlighted in red with a 70% chance for greater than or equal to 4 inches of snow.

There is a 10% chance for snow accumulating greater than or equal to 8 inches within the blue highlighted area. Higher amounts are likely in the Northeastern US where they have a 70% chance.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. 

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and portions of west-central and western Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions Friday evening and Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bitter cold wind chills in the teens expected by Saturday morning.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org.

This system is still a couple days out and the models will continue to wobble a bit with the accumulation amounts therefore, it is still too early to call specific location totals.

Accumulating Snow Possible Friday Night

Some accumulating snow is likely across Central and Eastern Kentucky Friday Night as cold air will change rain over to snow. A period of snowfall leaving a swatch of 1-4+ inches across the area looks likely. 

The GFS, Canadian, and European model are in agreement with accumulating snows.

The WPC has a 10% chance for snow accumulating up to or over 4" in blue and 40% in green.

This is showing a 70% chance of greather than or equal to 1" in light blue and an 80% in orange.

Chances of receiving greater than or equal to 2"

Chances of receiving greater than or equal to 4"

Your chances of seeing greater than or equal to 6"

Here is the probability to recieve greater than or equal to 8". The highest probability in Eastern Kentucky.

This system is still 3 days out so expect some wobbles in the models and specific accumulation totals will not be set in stone and will change.

Rain to Snow Friday Night

As cold weather takes over later this week, rain is expected to change over into some accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday Morning. 

The WPC shows a large area, including the entire state of Kentucky in at least a 10-30% chance for accumulating snow or sleet.

Lows will be dropping into the low 20's Friday night and highs on Saturday in the upper 20's. Stay tuned as the forecast changes.

Enhanced & Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today, Flood Watch KY

 An Enhanced Risk has been issued and includes portions of Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. 10% hatched significant tornado threat in yellow and the black dashed lines over some of the Enhanced Risk area, 5% in brown and 2% in yellow. 30% chance for damaging winds in red, 15% in yellow, and 5% in brown. 5% chance for severe hail in brown. 

A Stalled out boundary will lead to training and rounds of thunderstorms today and tonight. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch.

Here you can see where the HRRR Model is trying to predict where the boundary sets up as it shows convection stretching horizontally across Central Kentucky.

Flood Watch 

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, northwest Kentucky and south central Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Clark, Fayette, Garrard, Jessamine, Madison, Mercer, Nicholas and Woodford. In north central Kentucky, Breckinridge, Hardin, Larue, Nelson and Washington. In northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In south central Kentucky, Butler, Casey, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hart, Lincoln, Marion and Taylor.

* WHEN...From 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a stalled frontal boundary today. The motions of these showers and storms will likely result in repeated rounds of heavy rain for some areas and could result in flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

A Flood Advisory has been issued

Flood Advisory

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of NORTH CENTRAL Kentucky and SOUTH CENTRAL Kentucky, including the following counties, in NORTH CENTRAL Kentucky, Breckinridge, Hardin, Larue, Nelson and Washington. In SOUTH CENTRAL Kentucky, Grayson.

* WHEN...Until 130 PM CST /230 PM EST/.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1029 AM CST /1129 AM EST/, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield, Radcliff, Lebanon Junction, Clarkson, Bloomfield, Tunnel Hills, Crest and Colesburg. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you can do so safely and have them relay your report to the National Weather Service in Louisville.

Severe Weather Possible Today-Monday

An Enhanced Risk for severe weather Today has been issued for portions of Iowa and Northern Missouri. A 5% chance for a tornado in brown, and a 2% chance in green. 30% chance for damaging winds in red, 15% in yellow, and 5% in brown. There is a 15% chance of large hail in yellow and 5% in brown.

Sunday

Another Slight Risk will be in effect, this time for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Western Kentucky and Western Tennessee. 

Tornado threat: 5% in brown and 2% in green.

Wind: 15% yellow, 5% in brown.

Hail: 5% chance. 

Monday

As the system progresses east, the next locations up in the Slight Risk are Southest Ohio, West Virginia, East Central Kentucky, Central and Eastern Tennessee, East Central Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwestern Georgia. 

Special Weather Statement for Fire Weather

A special weather statement for fire weather has been issued.

Special Weather Statement

The combination of gusty south to southwest winds, low relative humidities, record to near record temperatures, and small fuels drying out from a stretch of dry weather will lead to elevated burning dangers later today. Given sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 30 to 35 mph, fires could become uncontrolled. Use caution if planning to burn today and perhaps consider another day if possible.

Saturday & Sunday Severe Weather Potential

 The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Illinois for the potential for severe weather on Saturday.

For Sunday, the focus will shift south to include portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas,  and Tennessee.

At this time, a Slight Risk has been issued days ahead of this weather system, the Storm Prediction Center has enough confidence to note strong to severe thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday. We will need to watch and wait to see how the ingredients line up to see if the Storm Prediction Center upgrades or downgrades the outlined areas. 

Tornado Season is upon us and this is the time of year that you want to always stay abreast to the weather changes before planning outdoor activities. Lightning also becomes a big threat this time of year and may catch you off guard if you are not aware of thunderstorm potential.