Isolated strong to severe storms

 There is a Marginal Risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with severe weather more probable within the yellow Slight Risk areas and where there is a 5% chance for tornadoes in brown and a 2% in green. Scattered storms will be possible in Kentucky ahead of a line of storms. Severe weather is more likely west of I-65. 

Here is how the HRRR models see the showers and storm evolving this afternoon and evening.

Damaging winds will be the primary threat across Central Kentucky. 

A Mesoscale Discussion has been put out for portions of Southern Illinois, Eastern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Northeast Arkansas, and Western Tennessee. There is an 80% chance for a severe weather watch. The NWS is negotiating which product to issue this afternoon. Storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible in this area. 

Be sure to monitor your local forecast for immediate watches and warnings. Be sure to check radar before spending long periods of time outside or playing in water. Lightning is one of the leading killers. When thunder roars, go in doors immediately!

04/13/22 Tornadic Storms Aftermath

 

Before yesterdays storms, the biggest uncertainty was instability. Models were not in an agreement with how much clearing there would be after that mornings showers and embedded storms. By 4:00 pm EDT in the afternoon, there was modest clearing with sunshine. At that time we knew we had to focus our attention to the developing squall line to our west that had active tornado warnings.

A report of baseball sized hail come out of Radcliff, Ky. There was a large and ominous looking shelf cloud leading the heavy rain and damaging winds. Tornado & Severe Thunderstorm warnings were put out ahead of the storms as we all knew the spin ups would be quick.

Here is where damage has been reported. The NWS will be conducting surveys Today and have a preliminary rating of an EF 1 that touched town in Jefferson County, KY.

Some of these tracks could be straight lined winds, but we will wait for the NWS to determine.

Below is my gallery of the storm from my perspective.

Afternoon Severe Weather Update

 Mesoscale Discussion 0474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of far northern AR...southern MO...and southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 131549Z - 131645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing ahead of a developing QLCS across southern MO into northern AR. A watch likely will be needed soon downstream of this line of storms from southern MO into southern IL and perhaps parts of northern AR.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms from south-central MO into far north-central AR has increased in intensity and organization over the past hour or so. While the downstream airmass continues to recover from overnight/morning convection and instability remains weak, a modest cold pool is likely aiding in better organization of the developing QLCS. Some additional airmass recovery downstream of the eastward-advancing line of storms is expected, and overall shear profiles will support sustained organized convection.

Southwesterly flow increases rapidly with height across the MCD area, with 850 mb winds near or greater than 50 kt. If stronger cold pool development continues, a developing rear-inflow jet could increase potential for more widespread damaging gusts. While damaging wind potential appears to be the greater threat with this activity, effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 amid favorable low-level speed shear also will support a few mesovortex tornadoes within the QLCS. A watch may be needed soon for portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

Severe Weather Outbreak Today/Tonight

 Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will erupt this afternoon and evening. A severe squall line capable of all modes is expected. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for portions of Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi.

There is potential for strong tornadoes within the Moderate Risk areas. There is a hatched significant 15% threat in red, 10% hatched significant in yellow, 5% in brown and 2% in green.

There is a high probability of damaging winds as they have placed a hatched significant 45% threat in the pink outlined areas, 30% hatched significant in red, 15% hatched significant in yellow, 15% yellow non hatched, and 5% in brown.

Large hail is also of concern today with a 30% red and 15% yellow hatched significant.

For Central Kentucky:

Uncertainty exists due to current on going cloud cover. Depending on the rounds of showers and storms this afternoon should they occur, it will lessen the blow of the severe squall line that will sweep across the area of I-65 around midnight.

Should there be enough instability left over, all modes could be possible. The biggest threat at this time is 40 mph gradient winds outside of thunderstorms, a Wind Advisory had been issued. Regardless of the evolution, many of these storms will be nocturnal. Do not allow yourself to be caught off guard. If you have a basement, perhaps spend the night sleeping down there. Be ready to take shelter should a tornado warning be issued.

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...11 AM EDT this morning to 2 AM EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of over 40 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

HRRR Evolution:

Here is the high resolution rapid refresh models ideas.

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Midland WR120 NOAA Weather Alert Radio - White

Severe Weather Threat Continues

 There is a threat for Severe Weather Monday- Wednesday. All modes of severe weather are possible especially in the Enhanced Risk area.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas for Tuesday. Top and middle pictures. 

On the bottom an Enhanced Risk has been issued for portions of Illinois, Missouri, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas.

 

Freeze Warning

Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy 

Freeze Warning

* WHAT...Lows around 30, with upper 20s possible mainly in sheltered rural valleys, with widespread frost.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and most of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Multi Day Severe Weather Outbreak Possible

 An episode of severe weather with all modes is possible starting Monday. This will be a multi day event as the Storm Prediction Center has confidence and has issued Slight and Enhanced Risk Areas well in advance. Please stay tuned as these areas may or not be upgraded in the coming days.

MONDAY- Top Left and Right 

TUESDAY- Bottom Left

WEDNESDAY- Bottom Right.

Freeze Watch, Special Weather Statement

 Linktr.ee/WeatherGraphy 

Freeze Watch

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast and south central Indiana, and east central, north central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

Special Weather Statement 

WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...

A strong and unseasonably cold weather system will affect the region this weekend. For tonight and Saturday morning, periods of rain and snow showers are expected. The highest chances of snow showers will be late tonight and early Saturday morning. These snow showers will likely persist into the early afternoon hours on Saturday. Surface temperatures overnight and Saturday morning are expected to remain above freezing. However, within heavier snow showers, a quick slushy accumulation will be possible. These snow showers may result in slick spots on area roadways overnight and Saturday morning. Motorists traveling overnight should exercise caution, especially on bridges and overpasses.

Precipitation will diminish through the afternoon hours on Saturday and then skies are expected to clear. This combination of clear skies and light winds will likely result in widespread frost development late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temperatures Sunday morning are expected to dip into the upper 20s. A Freeze watch is in effect for much of the area. This freeze watch may be updated to a freeze warning sometime on Saturday.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and your local media for the latest updates.

Frost Advisory

 

Frost Advisory

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Portions of and south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... A few sheltered areas may experience a light freeze with temperatures below 32.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.