Mesoscale Discussion 0474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Areas affected...portions of far northern AR...southern MO...and southern IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 131549Z - 131645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing ahead of a developing QLCS across southern MO into northern AR. A watch likely will be needed soon downstream of this line of storms from southern MO into southern IL and perhaps parts of northern AR.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms from south-central MO into far north-central AR has increased in intensity and organization over the past hour or so. While the downstream airmass continues to recover from overnight/morning convection and instability remains weak, a modest cold pool is likely aiding in better organization of the developing QLCS. Some additional airmass recovery downstream of the eastward-advancing line of storms is expected, and overall shear profiles will support sustained organized convection.
Southwesterly flow increases rapidly with height across the MCD area, with 850 mb winds near or greater than 50 kt. If stronger cold pool development continues, a developing rear-inflow jet could increase potential for more widespread damaging gusts. While damaging wind potential appears to be the greater threat with this activity, effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 amid favorable low-level speed shear also will support a few mesovortex tornadoes within the QLCS. A watch may be needed soon for portions of the MCD area.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/13/2022
No comments:
Post a Comment