Strong storms possible tomorrow

 A Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms has been placed over portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky for tomorrow. Eastern and Southeastern Kentucky stands the greatest threat at this time.

Damaging winds are the only threats at this time. Storms are expected to be mostly scattered in nature with 20-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Watching the tropics

 

There is a tropical disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic and there is ongoing disorganized thunderstorms. Formation for the next 48 hours are low, however there is a 60% chance for it to organize and become a tropical depression within the next 5 days. We are within hurricane season and so all disturbances needs to be monitored in case of rapid intensification. It will be moving at 15 to 20 miles per hour and heading to the Windward Islands.

Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon

 The Storm Prediction Center has portions of Kentucky in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. 

Here is the damaging wind threat 

A severe thunderstorm watch has also been issued for portions of Kentucky and Indiana

Heat Advisory

 

Heat Advisory

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 107.

* WHERE...Portions of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur.

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.

Another Heat Wave

Another heat wave is in store for next week. Continue to monitor weather conditions next week. Below you can see potential heat index values of 105° F leading up to 110° F on Wednesday. 

Looking on to the 6-10 day temperature forecast we can see that forecast models are expecting temperatures to be above normal for this time of year.

The 8-14 day temperature outlook is also above normal.

Having prolonged heat with not enough precipitation can lead to dry weather conditions. The 6-10 day forecast shows precipitation for this time of the season is below normal. 

The 8-14 day also shows precipitation will be leaning towards below normal. 

Central Kentucky received much needed rain this morning with severe thunderstorms. As of right now the drought outlook for this area is low. There will be 20% chances for pop up thunderstorms during the week and any rain will be welcomed.

As before be cautious when spending time outdoors in the heat. Stay hydrated and well rested. Bring your pets indoors and do not walk them on asphalt as it may burn their feet. If it's hot to you, it is too hot for a pet to be left outside. Beat the heat and always check the back seat.

Severe Thunderstorms Possible late this morning/early afternoon

 A line of severe thunderstorms is moving it's way into Central Kentucky this morning. The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch 

Here is the SPC Outlook 

Damaging wind and hail threat is 5%

Excessive Heat This Week

The Heat wave has arrived and will peak within the next few days. The National Weather Service has issued statements see below.

Excessive Heat Warning (Dark Pink)

* WHAT...Heat index values around 110 Monday and Tuesday afternoon. For Wednesday, heat index values of 105 to 109 are forecast.

* WHERE...Portions of and south central Indiana and north central, northwest and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...The warmest temperatures and heat indices are expected Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur.

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Heat Advisory Orange

* WHAT...Heat index values between 105 and 109 expected each afternoon. Brief heat index values of 110 will be possible Tuesday.

* WHERE...Portions of and south central Indiana and north central, northwest and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Monday through Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur.

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

The 6-10 day precipitation outlook shows that precipitation for this time or year will be below normal. With the combination of temperatures being in the upper 90's and the lack of rainfall in some locations, minor drought can become a problem. 

Heat Wave this upcoming week

A modest heat wave will be moving into the Ohio Valley starting on Tuesday with highs around 97° and lows in the 70s. The heat index will be uncomfortable as forecast models are estimating indices could reach up to 110° Fahrenheit. 

Looking ahead to the long range climate forecast, temperatures for this time if year will likely remain above normal. 

The combination of above normal temperatures may lead to minor drought and dry conditions. Precipitation for this time of year will likely be below normal.

30% chance for popup thunderstorms this upcoming week may help curb dry conditions and take down the temperature and heat index in some locations. 

Be mindful of heat exhaustion and stay hydrated if spending time outside. Always remember to check the back seat and be sure no children or animals are left in a vehicle. Be mindful of walking your pets on asphalt as the temperatures may hurt their feet.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Today

Update: A tornado watch has been issued for portions of the Ohio Valley 

 A Tornado Watch is forthcoming for portions of the Ohio Valley with an 80% chance of issuance.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed two separate areas in a Slight Risk for strong to severe storms later today. The Ohio Valley and the Southern Great Plains along with the Deep South.

The tornado threat is conditional, but non zero with portions of East Central Illinois, Central Indiana, and West Central Ohio standing the greatest chance for an isolated tornado.

The Texas Panhandle and Southwestern Oklahoma stands the greatest threat for damaging winds with a 15% hatched significant threat, though anyone in the Slight Risk may see storms with damaging winds today.

Here is the potential for hail within the storms with the strongest updrafts.

Strong to Severe Storms Today

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA

CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 42 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY

ANDERSON BOYLE FAYETTE FRANKLIN JESSAMINE MERCER SCOTT WOODFORD

IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT HARDIN HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE MEADE NELSON OLDHAM SHELBY SPENCER TRIMBLE WASHINGTON

IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY

HANCOCK OHIO

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

CASEY GRAYSON GREEN HART LOGAN MARION TAYLOR

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON WARREN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBANY, BARDSTOWN, BEDFORD, BOWLING GREEN, BRANDENBURG, BROWNSVILLE, BURKESVILLE, CAMPBELLSVILLE, COLUMBIA, CORYDON, DANVILLE, EDMONTON, ELIZABETHTOWN, ENGLISH, FRANKFORT, FRANKLIN, GEORGETOWN, GLASGOW, GREENSBURG, HARDINSBURG, HARRODSBURG, HARTFORD, HAWESVILLE, HODGENVILLE, JAMESTOWN, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, LA GRANGE, LAWRENCEBURG, LEBANON, LEITCHFIELD, LEWISPORT, LEXINGTON, LIBERTY, LOUISVILLE, MADISON, MORGANTOWN, MUNFORDVILLE, NEW ALBANY, NEW CASTLE, NICHOLASVILLE, PAOLI, PROVIDENCE, RUSSELLVILLE, SALEM, SCOTTSBURG, SCOTTSVILLE, SHELBYVILLE, SHEPHERDSVILLE, SPRINGFIELD, TAYLORSVILLE, TELL CITY, TOMPKINSVILLE, AND VERSAILLES.

A Slight and Marginal Risk has been placed in two separate areas. For portions of the Plains, and the Ohio Valley. Low conditional tornado threat this afternoon and evening with a 2% chance in green. The damaging wind threat is 15% in yellow and 5% in brown. Kansas and Nebraska stand the greatest threat for large hail with a hatched significant 15% chance. For Kentucky; Damaging winds and heavy rain are the greatest concern.

Thunderstorms today will be capable of heavy rainfall leading to a minor flash flood threat late this evening into tonight. 

Slight Risk for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Today

The storm prediction center has upgraded a large portion of Kentucky in a Slight Risk for storm potential this afternoon and evening where damaging winds and hail are the main threats. Storms look to be isolated in nature and not everyone will see severe weather today. The greatest chances are in Texas and the slight risk areas where sporadic 2% tornado threats have been posted. 

First Day of Atlantic Hurricane Season, watching 2 disturbances

 Today marks the official beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and Today we are watching two disturbances. One approaching the gulf which was previously Hurricane Agatha, and another disturbance in the Atlantic. The Red X shows a 60% or greater chance for this disturbance to become a tropical storm or hurricane within the next 5 days. The Yellow X shows a less than or equal to 40% chance of maturation within the next 5 days.

The formation chance for the disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico has a high 70% chance in the next 48 hours and a 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane within the next 5 days. 

 More updates to come, in the meantime go over your tropical storm and hurricane preparedness plans.