Strong storms possible tomorrow, a look at the tropics

 A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening with multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms that are expected to develop and move across Kentucky. The storm prediction center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday. A 2% chance for a tornado threat in green and a 5% damaging wind threat in brown. The hail threat is relatively low for everyone and would be scattered in nature.

The Tropics:

There is currently a disturbance in the Western Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance has a 50% chance of maturing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.

There is also a tropical wave coming off of the west coast of Africa. At this time it is unlikely to develop into a tropical depression, storm, or hurricane within the next 48 hours. It has a 20% of maturation by day 5.

Continue to support Eastern Kentucky

 Here is the link to continue to provide donations to the flood victims of Eastern Kentucky 

This fund was created by the governor, Andy Beshear.

https://secure.kentucky.gov/FormServices/Finance/EKYFloodRelief

The Death Toll is 39.

Garrett, Kentucky Michael Clevenger and Scott Utterback, Louisville Courier Journal

Flood Watch for Central and Eastern Kentucky

 

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

*WHERE...Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky

and south central Kentucky, including the following counties, in
east central Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Clark, Fayette,
Franklin, Garrard, Harrison, Jessamine, Madison, Mercer, Nicholas,
Scott and Woodford. In north central Kentucky, Henry, Larue,
Nelson, Shelby, Spencer and Washington. In south central Kentucky,
Adair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Green, Hart,
Lincoln, Marion, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell and Taylor.
*

 WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

Strong storms with heavy rain, Flood Watch

 A Flood Watch has been issued 

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Indiana and Kentucky, including the following counties, in Indiana, Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott and Washington. In Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Edmonson, Fayette, Franklin, Grayson, Hancock, Hardin, Harrison, Hart, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Larue, Logan, Marion, Meade, Mercer, Nelson, Nicholas, Ohio, Oldham, Scott, Shelby, Simpson, Spencer, Trimble, Warren, Washington and Woodford.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast this afternoon through Friday evening. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms that repeatedly move over the same areas could easily produce localized swaths of higher rainfall totals. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook 

Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across most of Kentucky 

A marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today with damaging winds and heavy rain leading to flooding are the primary threats.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

 

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Northern Kentucky

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...

  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75

  mph possible

  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should develop along a west/east-oriented confluence zone and grow upscale into a cluster with embedded supercells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 30 miles east northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Today

 There is a chance for rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms today and through the overnight hours across the Slight Risk area.

Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are the primary hazards. However, there is a non zero tornado threat at 2% in green (bottom right).

15% damaging wind threat in yellow (top right) and a 5% hail threat in brown (bottom left).

Unfortunately rain will move across already devastated locations in Southeastern Kentucky. The Flood Watch continues there.