Hydrologic Outlook for Rain

Hydrologic Outlook

2.25 to 3.25 inches of rain is expected this week, which will increase the concerns for areal and river flooding. Rivers in central Kentucky are expected to near or reach action stage. The Green River at Woodbury and Rochester Ferry and the Kentucky River at Peaks Mill may reach minor flood stage.

Using some ensemble guidance, the NAEFS shows a greater than 50% chance of reaching action stage and a 20% chance of reaching minor flooding at Peak's Mill in Frankfort. Along the Green River at Woodbury/Rochester Ferry, there is a 60% chance of reaching action stage and a 50% chance of reaching minor flooding.

Rivers will begin to rise with the onset of precipitation on Wednesday, and flooding concerns to increase on Thursday.

A Marginal Risk for flooding is possible on Wednesday and includes almost all of Kentucky. 

Here are the possible rainfall totals over the next 7 days.

Power grid issues Central & Eastern Kentucky

Started having power issues at 1:35 am. Arcs lit up the night sky with loud buzzing sounds. Power going in and out relentlessly (currenly out now). I'm not sure what the cause is, it could very well be weather related. However, much appreciation to the linemen who work throughout the night and in cold weather (currently -3°F) conditions. Their work never goes unappreciated. Warmer weather is on the way for a bit, I'm sure the power grid will appreciate it. ❄️😊💙

Up to 20,000 people have been affected with on and off power outages starting after midnight. Power outages continue to occur sporadically across the state. Cold weather could be a contributer as we have spent over 100 hours below freezing increasing the demand for energy and electricity to heat homes and businesses. 

Now we look ahead to above normal temperatures in the upper 50's next week with rainfall expected each day. With saturated grounds, minor flooding could be possible on the days with the heaviest rain, especially in the South.

Winter Weather Tonight through Friday

A Winter Storm is currently in progress and is putting down light to moderate snow across West and Central Kentucky while heavy snow is falling in Eastern Kentucky. 

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...This evening, a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain is expected south of Louisville and Lexington over parts of central Kentucky before widespread light to moderate snow develops over southern Indiana and central Kentucky later tonight into Friday. Total snowfall accumulations of 0.2 to 3 inches will be possible across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From noon EST /11 AM CST/ Thursday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening commute and will likely result in negative travel impacts Thursday night and through the day on Friday.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Radar

Winter Weather Advisory for Wintry Mix & Snow Thursday-Friday

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...An initial wintry mix of snow and some freezing rain is expected Thursday afternoon with a short period of freezing drizzle Thursday evening. Widespread light to moderate snow is expected late Thursday night and through the day on Friday. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with a small glaze of icing will be possible across southern Indiana and northern portions of Kentucky.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky.

* WHEN...From noon EST /11 AM CST/ Thursday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening commute and will likely result in negative travel impacts Thursday night and through the day on Friday.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://pws.trafficwise.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Here is what the HRRR hourly model is predicting. 

Unfortunately for myself and other snow lovers, this isn't going to produce a lot of snow for our area and over the next two weeks abnormally warm weather returns.

Radar 

Winter Storm Threat Thursday - Friday

There is potential for a Winter Storm Thursday and Friday. It is too early to call on snowfall totals, but for now we can look at the National Weather Service 3 Day snow Outlook which shows a 10% chance for accumulating snow East of I-65. At this time 1-4 inches is possible. We are over 90 hours out from this system and I expect models to shift around before locking in. 

As of now we're dealing with a cold highs and lows in addition to having a snowpack. Wind chills remain below zero. 

Wind Chill Advisory

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 10 to 12 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills can result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Winter Weather Advisory for Snow Tonight.

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected

. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Total snow amounts will come in two separate waves. The first wave will be tonight with ammounts between 1 to 2 inches, and the second will be later Monday into Monday night with an additional inch or less possible.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

HRRR Model Prediction 

Radar

Skycams are showing snow covered roads in Elizabethtown & Bardstown Kentucky as temperatures are well below freezing. Lows tonight will be in the low single digits.

Special Weather Statement for Snow

Special Weather Statement

Areas of light snow are expected to develop this evening and move across the region during the overnight hours. Snowfall amounts will generally range from a coating to as much as 1 inch, with locally higher totals possible.

Reductions in visibility would be expected where heavier bursts of snow develop. While dry snow and cold temperatures will limit some hazards, patchy slick spots and poor travel conditions will still be possible late tonight into Sunday morning.

Radar

High Wind Warning, Marginal Risk Severe Weather, Snow Showers Tonight

Wild weather today, first up we have dangerous wind gusts expected today outside of any possible thunderstorms. The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

High Wind Warning

* WHAT...Wind gusts this morning will gradually increase in intensity, peaking this afternoon and early evening. Widespread gust over 50 mph expected, with sporadic gusts of 58 mph or more this afternoon and early evening. Gusts for much of the overnight hours will range from 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...A wind advisory will remain in effect until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today. A High Wind Warning will then go into effect at noon EST /11 AM CST/ today and last until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening. Afterwards, a wind advisory will then be in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain indoors during the most intense part of the windstorm. Use caution if you must drive.

Something you don't see often is that every US state is under a watch, warning, or advisory.

Storms

The Storm Prediction Center has majority of Kentucky in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. 

Snow

A few snow showers are expected overnight, little to no accumulations are expected. 

Cold Temperatures

We are still on track to see below normal temperatures over the next 6-10 days

 

Radar

Crazy Weather Ride Ahead

 We have some wild weather events coming up, from 50 degree highs with potential thunderstorms to frigidly cold temperatures with snow chances. Strong gusty winds are expected to return tomorrow and a Wind Advisory has been issued:

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. * WHEN...From 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...It is possible that portions of this wind advisory may be upgraded to a high wind warning if the threat for damaging wind gusts increases. Stay up to date with the latest forecasts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

The Storm Prediction Center has Central Kentucky in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday. Overall the threat for severe weather here is low with a 5% chance for damaging winds, the hail and tornado threat is zero. Tornadoes, (a few of which may be strong) are most probable across the 10% hatched significant zone in the Enhanced Risk area which includes portions of Central and Southern Alabama, Georgia, South and North Carolina. All modes of severe weather is possible in these location, there is also a 30% hatched significant damaging wind threat that includes portions of Alabama, North Central Georgia, North and South Carolina.

Here is what the HRRR model is anticipating precipitation to evolve tomorrow.

For our area in Central Kentucky, heavy rain and gusty winds are the threats, the WPC has the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from this system.

Then, we turn out attention to the upcoming below normal cold temperatures that will come  crashing in from the West. We are expected this spend around 120 hours or so below freezing. Lows in the single digits and teens to mid twenties for highs are expected. 

Continuing to watch the potential for accumulating snow on Sunday, Day 4. Snowfall totals are uncertain at this time. 

Overall, the main story will be gusty winds and heavy rain, then we get ready to brace cold temperatures and snowfall potential. The worst of the severe weather is expected to be South and East of our area here in Kentucky.

Radar

Gusty winds and light snow tonight

 Gusty winds and light snow is expected tonight across portions of Kentucky. Minor accumulations are expected with less than a half an inch starting around 11 pm. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 am Wednesday. 10 to 15 mph sustained winds with gust 40 to 45 mph can be expected.

Cold weather is expected to come crashing in from the northwest in the up coming 6 to 10 day temperature outlook. Temperatures are expected to be below normal and single digit temperatures could be possible.

There are a couple of systems within the next couple of weeks that can produce snow. The NOAA experimental heavy snow fall prediction model has a large area in a Slight Risk for heavy snow.

Day 6

Day 7

Radar

Severe Weather to affect the Central Gulf Coast.

A potentially dangerous multiday day severe weather event could begin to unfold later day. The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk today for portions of the Central Gulf Coast (TX, LA, MS, AL, and FL) and off towards the East Coast tomorrow. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms capable of producing a few intense tornadoes, large hail, and hurricane force winds are possible across the Enhanced Risk area today and tonight. 

A large area of Enhanced Risk is outlined for tomorrow.

A Slight Risk has been issued in advanced for some of the same areas for Day 4 and Day 5.