In progress:
Statewide power outages have occur and continue to occur as the MCV moves into Eastern Kentucky.
A severe MCV is ongoing across Western Kentucky and is pushing east at 75 mph. This storm has a history of producing tornadoes.
A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky until Monday morning.
Forecast:There is potential for at least 2 or 3 round of strong to severe thunderstorms will all modes possible. The Storm Prediction Center highlights damaging winds up to hurricane force are possible within the hatched significant 30% area. Large hail also in the 30% hatched significant area and very heavy rain where a Moderate Risk is in place for portions of Southern Kentucky. It should noted that the heaviest rainfall may occur overnight.
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Radar
There is a Marginal Risk for isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon. Hi-res models show the potential for isolated storms developing over Central Kentucky by this evening and pushing northeast. Damaging winds and some hail are the primary threats.
A Slight Risk and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The primary threats are heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail.
There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, damaging winds, and small hail. There is also a low chance of a brief spin up tornado as the storm prediction center has a 2% chance for a tornado.
A Moderate Risk is in effect for portions of Southern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Northwestern and Central Tennessee where a few strong tornadoes EF2+ will be possible this afternoon and evening.
There is a significant threat for damaging winds 45% across the Moderate Risk area and a 30% hatched significant threat along the Enhanced Risk area. Overall there is a 10% hatched significant tornado threat draped across the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas.
Significantly large hail will also be possible with the supercells and within the strongest portion of the MCS. A 45% hatched significant threat is highlighted among the Moderate Risk area.
For Central Kentucky the forecast remains more complicated. Forecast models show a complex of strong to potentially severe storms moving through later today. At this time I think the best chance for tornadoes will be Southwest of I-65, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain here is possible and a Flood Watch has been issued for excessive rain falling in a short period of time. Will have to wait and see exactly where storms develop as a farther north development will lead to severe weather, a farther south development will lead to a lesser threat for Central and Northern Kentucky. Nonetheless, stay weather aware!
Radar
Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could be supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong), damaging winds of 70+ mph, and up to golf ball sized hail.
A rare HIGH RISK has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, a tornado and severe weather outbreak is expected. There is a 30% hatched significant tornado threat for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. Some of the tornadoes in this area could be strong, long-lived, and long-tracked.
There is growing potential for a significant severe weather episode Tuesday and Wednesday for The Ohio Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Tuesday with a hatched significant threat for large hail. For Wednesday An Enhanced Risk has been issued and highlights the potential for all modes, supercells capable of producing EF2+ tornadoes also appears possible at this time. Moderate Instability and a good amount of deep layer wind shear is concerning, hodographs are showing the potential for PDS Tornadoes over Central Kentucky as of this morning. Keep in mind we are still over 24 hours out and models can and will change a bit as we get closer to the event. Prepare now for significant weather Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Please, if you live in a mobile home and are highlighted in an Enhanced Risk, please think and plan ahead about where you would go during a tornado. Mobile homes are not ideal to be inside of during a tornado and it would be extremely unlikely to survive EF2+ tornadoes should they occur. Many have lost their lives already this year to tornadoes inside of mobile homes, please stay weather aware!
Wednesday
