Altostratus Undulatus

Here are a couple photos I took this morning of the clouds, some Altostratus Undulatus came through with some small graupel. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected later today with some gusty winds and rain. Southern Kentucky may see a few isolated severe thunderstorms later on in the afternoon and evening. 

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Tonight

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this evening into the early overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and congeal into a squall line as it moves through Central Kentucky. The strongest storms are expected within the Enhanced and Slight Risk Areas. A Wind Advisory is in effect.

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 11 PM EDT /10 PM

CDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Tornado Watch

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 58 IN

EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING

AREAS

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA

CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS

FLOYD HARRISON ORANGE

PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY

BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT GRAYSON

HANCOCK HARDIN HART

JEFFERSON LARUE MEADE

OHIO OLDHAM

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

ALLEN BARREN BUTLER

EDMONSON LOGAN SIMPSON

WARREN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, ALVATON, ATHERTONVILLE, BAIZETOWN, BARDSTOWN JUNCTION, BEAVER DAM, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BEDA, BOWLING GREEN, BOYCE, BRANDENBURG, BROWNSBORO, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BUCKNER, BUFFALO, CANMER, CANTON, CANTON, CAVE CITY, CECILIA, CEMENTVILLE, CEMENTVILLE, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT, CLERMONT, CORYDON, CORYDON, CROMWELL, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, DUKES, DUNBAR, EDWARDSVILLE, EDWARDSVILLE, EIGHTY EIGHT, ELIZABETHTOWN, ENGLISH, EVANS LANDING, EVANS LANDING, FLAHERTY, FLAT ROCK, FLOYDS KNOBS, FLOYDS KNOBS, FOREST SPRINGS, FORT KNOX, FRANKLIN, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GARFIELD, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GLASGOW, GLEN DEAN, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, HALFWAY, HARDINSBURG, HARDYVILLE, HARNED, HARTFORD, HAWESVILLE, HAYWOOD, HILLVIEW, HITCHCOCK, HODGENVILLE, HORSE CAVE, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, JEFFERSONVILLE, KESSINGER, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, LA GRANGE, LECTA, LEITCHFIELD, LEWISPORT, LOGANSPORT, LOUISVILLE, LUCAS, LYONS, MADRID, MAGNOLIA, MARENGO, MARENGO, MAYNARD, MCDANIELS, MCQUADY, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, MORGANTOWN, MOUNT WASHINGTON, MULDRAUGH, MUNFORDVILLE, NEW ALBANY, NEW ALBANY, NEW BOSTON, PAOLI, PATESVILLE, PAYNEVILLE, PELLVILLE, PEWEE VALLEY, PLANO, PRENTISS, PRICES MILL, PROVIDENCE, QUALITY, RADCLIFF, REX, RICHARDSVILLE, ROSINE, RUSSELLVILLE, SCOTTSVILLE, SHEPHERDSVILLE, STEPHENSBURG, SYRIA, TELL CITY, TERRY, UNO, WESTPORT, WHITE CLOUD, WHITE CLOUD, AND YOUNGS CREEK.

HRRR Model Prediction

Radar

Wind Advisory, Marginal Risk Wednesday

 There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening into the overnight hours as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop and move through the area. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the primary threats.

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on east-west roadways. Use extra caution.

High Risk for Severe Weather in the South

 A rare High Risk has been issued for portions of Mississippi and Alabama for the potential of a tornado (some of which will be strong/violent) & severe weather outbreak. 30% hatched significant tornado and 45% hatched significant damaging wind threat for portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Outside of the High Risk Area, widespread severe weather with all modes is expected with threats decreasing farther North.

For Central Kentucky 

Widespread rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few hours and push easteard. Heavy rain and damaging winds are the primary threat, but the tornado threat is non zero. eastward. A Flood Watch has been issued in advance. Non thunderstorm winds will continue to gust up to 50 mph throughout the day, see wind advisory below the Flood Watch. 

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky, including the following areas, in east central Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Harrison KY, Jessamine, Madison, Mercer, Nicholas, Scott KY and Woodford. In north central Kentucky, Larue, Nelson and Washington

KY. In south central Kentucky, Adair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Lincoln, Logan, Marion, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell, Simpson, Taylor and Warren.

* WHEN...Through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- The heaviest rainfall, including repeated rounds of heavy rainfall rates caused by thunderstorms, is expected this afternoon and evening. Excessive rainfall may result in instances of flash flooding.

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Lunar Eclipse March 14th, 2025

 Here are a couple pictures of the Total Lunar Eclipse that I took this morning. I may upload more pictures later, but now I am turning my attention to severe weather approaching my area. This is the only Lunar Eclipse of the year and I am very pleased with how the weather turned out in Central Kentucky for the viewing. 

Partial Eclipse 

Totality

Severe Weather Outbreak Today & Tomorrow

 A Moderate Risk for severe weather with all modes likely has been issued for portions of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Tornadoes within this outlined area stand the greatest chance for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, large hail, and damaging winds 60-100 mph.

A Wind Advisory is also in effect

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM EDT /7 PM

CDT/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

On Saturday the Moderate Risk focus over portions of Dixie Alley. Once more all modes of severe weather is probable.

There is a Slight Risk for flooding due to heavy rain accompanied by severe storms on Saturday.

Radar

Severe Weather Threat Friday and Saturday

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of Central Kentucky in a Marginal and Slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.  A QLCS, line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to form and move across the area late Friday night into Saturday. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this line. Widespread severe weather with higher probabilities are possible in the Enhanced Risk area.

Saturday

Winter Storm Tonight

Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected after 10 PM eastern standard time for portions of Central Kentucky. A swath of 3 to 6 inches is likely with locally higher amounts in the heaviest bands. Visibility will be decreased and roads will become snow covered overnight with moderate to heavy snowfall rates. 

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Portions of Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening to 11 AM CST /noon

EST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Upcoming Winter Storm

Winter Storm Watch

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, light snow with less than 1 inch accumulation is expected through this evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snowfall amounts of greater than 4 inches are expected in the watch area.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Winter Weather Advisory, Flood Warning remains in effect. Upcoming Winter Storm Threat

Rain is expected to transition over to a quick thumping of snowfall where about 1 to 2 inches is expected. 

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

A Flood Warning was issued overnight due to rainfalling over a long duration, a squal line with heavier rain bands, wind, and lightning.

Flood Warning

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Anderson, Boyle, Bullitt, Casey, Clark, Garrard, Green, Hardin, Hart, Jessamine, Larue, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Taylor, Washington and Woodford.

* WHEN...Until 400 PM EST /300 PM CST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding. Streams continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. Low-water crossings are inundated with water and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- At 427 AM EST /327 AM CST/, the heavy rain has ended, but widespread flooding continues. Local law enforcement and county emergency management continue to report numerous road closures due to high water. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen in the warned area.

- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Richmond, Danville, Bardstown, Harrodsburg, Lebanon, Stanford, Lancaster, Hodgenville, Springfield and Mccreary.

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.

Looking ahead there is growing potential of a Winter Storm Tuesday through Thursday morning. The Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment is predicting a general swath of 4 to 6 inches across Cental Kentucky. 

Radar

Picture from snow this morning

Significant Flooding Threat

 A rare High Risk for flooding has been issued for portions of Northwestern Tennessee and Western, and Central Kentucky. Torrential rainfall fall is expected with heavier amounts being possible within embedded thunderstorms. A squall line of strong to severe storms are possible across Kentucky tomorrow as there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The main threats across Central Kentucky is flooding with threats for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds further south.

Flooding Threat

Flooding from heavy rain and saturated grounds are being coming more likely.

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Widespread areal, significant river, and isolated flash flooding all possible.

* WHERE...All of central Kentucky. Also, portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark, Crawford, Floyd, Harrison, and Perry.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers will be possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- 2 to 5 inches of rainfall on top of already saturated soils will lead to significant flooding concerns through much of the weekend.

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

There is a Marginal threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across Central Kentucky on Saturday, the main threats will be flooding from heavy rain.

Winter Storm Update

Snow continues to fall this morning across Kentucky and a winter storm warning remains in effect. 

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy snow with perhaps a brief transition to wintry mix. Snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches with very light ice accumulations.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Around 7 am

9:56 am update

Low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today

 There is a Marginal Risk for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some of which could be on the strong side. There's a 2% chance for tornadoes and a 5% chance of damaging winds and some hail. Overall the threat appears low at this time due to cloud cover in Central Kentucky. 

Minor accumulating snowfall, negative wind chills

 Minor accumulating snowfall is expected across western and central Kentucky with higher amounts in eastern Kentucky. Gusty winds will cause blowing snow at times with reduced visibilities. Cold air then comes crashing in with negative wind chills.

The nam 3k model is showing 1-2 inches across Cental Kentucky with higher amounts in the Southeastern portion of the state.

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and low visibility in snow showers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow showers will develop early Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours. Expect low visibility while traveling due to snow showers and breezy winds of 15-25 mph.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

The HRRR model is also showing similar amounts to the nam model.

The NWS probabilistic Snowfall Experiment is showing a 30% chance of snow accumulating more than 1 inch across Central Kentucky with higher percentages to the East.

Below we can see cold temperatures plummeting into the region with below freezing wind chills. 

Cold Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills in the single digits below zero expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very cold temperatures can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside.

Winter Storm Friday Update

 Current conditions

Temperatures are very cold right now due to the snow pack and clear skies from overnight, freezing fog was also a factor.

Freezing Fog Advisory

* WHAT...Visibility less than one mile in freezing fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

A Winter Storm Warning for snow has been issued 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected. Along the Kentucky and Tennessee border, 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ Friday to 6 AM CST /7 AM EST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The Friday afternoon commute will be negatively impacted.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

HRRR Model run.

Hi res nam run

The Weather Prediction Center has a 10% chance of accumulating greater than or equal to 4 inches of snow.

The lmk probabilistic Snowfall Experiment predicts 3-4 and 4-6 falling across the state on Friday.