Winter Storm Tonight

Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected after 10 PM eastern standard time for portions of Central Kentucky. A swath of 3 to 6 inches is likely with locally higher amounts in the heaviest bands. Visibility will be decreased and roads will become snow covered overnight with moderate to heavy snowfall rates. 

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Portions of Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening to 11 AM CST /noon

EST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Upcoming Winter Storm

Winter Storm Watch

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, light snow with less than 1 inch accumulation is expected through this evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snowfall amounts of greater than 4 inches are expected in the watch area.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Winter Weather Advisory, Flood Warning remains in effect. Upcoming Winter Storm Threat

Rain is expected to transition over to a quick thumping of snowfall where about 1 to 2 inches is expected. 

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

A Flood Warning was issued overnight due to rainfalling over a long duration, a squal line with heavier rain bands, wind, and lightning.

Flood Warning

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Anderson, Boyle, Bullitt, Casey, Clark, Garrard, Green, Hardin, Hart, Jessamine, Larue, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Taylor, Washington and Woodford.

* WHEN...Until 400 PM EST /300 PM CST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding. Streams continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. Low-water crossings are inundated with water and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- At 427 AM EST /327 AM CST/, the heavy rain has ended, but widespread flooding continues. Local law enforcement and county emergency management continue to report numerous road closures due to high water. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen in the warned area.

- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Richmond, Danville, Bardstown, Harrodsburg, Lebanon, Stanford, Lancaster, Hodgenville, Springfield and Mccreary.

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.

Looking ahead there is growing potential of a Winter Storm Tuesday through Thursday morning. The Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment is predicting a general swath of 4 to 6 inches across Cental Kentucky. 

Radar

Picture from snow this morning

Significant Flooding Threat

 A rare High Risk for flooding has been issued for portions of Northwestern Tennessee and Western, and Central Kentucky. Torrential rainfall fall is expected with heavier amounts being possible within embedded thunderstorms. A squall line of strong to severe storms are possible across Kentucky tomorrow as there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The main threats across Central Kentucky is flooding with threats for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds further south.

Flooding Threat

Flooding from heavy rain and saturated grounds are being coming more likely.

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Widespread areal, significant river, and isolated flash flooding all possible.

* WHERE...All of central Kentucky. Also, portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark, Crawford, Floyd, Harrison, and Perry.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers will be possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- 2 to 5 inches of rainfall on top of already saturated soils will lead to significant flooding concerns through much of the weekend.

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

There is a Marginal threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across Central Kentucky on Saturday, the main threats will be flooding from heavy rain.

Winter Storm Update

Snow continues to fall this morning across Kentucky and a winter storm warning remains in effect. 

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy snow with perhaps a brief transition to wintry mix. Snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches with very light ice accumulations.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Around 7 am

9:56 am update

Low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today

 There is a Marginal Risk for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some of which could be on the strong side. There's a 2% chance for tornadoes and a 5% chance of damaging winds and some hail. Overall the threat appears low at this time due to cloud cover in Central Kentucky. 

Minor accumulating snowfall, negative wind chills

 Minor accumulating snowfall is expected across western and central Kentucky with higher amounts in eastern Kentucky. Gusty winds will cause blowing snow at times with reduced visibilities. Cold air then comes crashing in with negative wind chills.

The nam 3k model is showing 1-2 inches across Cental Kentucky with higher amounts in the Southeastern portion of the state.

Winter Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and low visibility in snow showers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow showers will develop early Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours. Expect low visibility while traveling due to snow showers and breezy winds of 15-25 mph.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

The HRRR model is also showing similar amounts to the nam model.

The NWS probabilistic Snowfall Experiment is showing a 30% chance of snow accumulating more than 1 inch across Central Kentucky with higher percentages to the East.

Below we can see cold temperatures plummeting into the region with below freezing wind chills. 

Cold Weather Advisory

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills in the single digits below zero expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very cold temperatures can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside.

Winter Storm Friday Update

 Current conditions

Temperatures are very cold right now due to the snow pack and clear skies from overnight, freezing fog was also a factor.

Freezing Fog Advisory

* WHAT...Visibility less than one mile in freezing fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

A Winter Storm Warning for snow has been issued 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected. Along the Kentucky and Tennessee border, 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ Friday to 6 AM CST /7 AM EST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The Friday afternoon commute will be negatively impacted.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

HRRR Model run.

Hi res nam run

The Weather Prediction Center has a 10% chance of accumulating greater than or equal to 4 inches of snow.

The lmk probabilistic Snowfall Experiment predicts 3-4 and 4-6 falling across the state on Friday.

Winter Storm Friday

A winter storm is expected to produce accumulating snow Thursday night through Friday. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for snow. Most models are in agreement with accumulating snow sweeping through with up to at least 3 inches. These totals will likely fluctuate a bit as we get closer the the actual event. Friday evening is when the heaviest of the snow is expected to fall. 

Winter Storm Watch

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow possible. Snowfall accumulations within the watch area of 4 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possibe.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slick road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts over the next few days.

Here is the GFS model run of the snowfall

And here is the NAM model of the snowfall 

Accumulating snow possible Friday

There is potential for more accumulating snow of 1 to 4 inches across Kentucky with higher amounts in the South. Ice does not appear to be a threat at this time across Kentucky, so it will not be a repeat.

Here is a run of the GFS model

The probabilistic Snowfall Experiment by the National Weather Service shows a good 50-60% chance of snow accumulations greater than 2 inches.

Winter Storm in Progress

 The winter storm is now in progress, here is an update to the warning. Significant amounts of snowfall and ice accumulations are expected. 

9:27 pm update, power is out and freezing rain continues falling across the state.

2:14 pm update, we accumulated about 6 inches of snow and we are now on to the ice storm portion of the winter storm where 3/4th" of ice is expected across the state. 

9:50 am

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 6 and 10 inches along and north of the I-64 corridor, 3 and 6 inches from Tell City to Elizabethtown to Richmond, and 1 to 3 inches from Hartford to Munfordville to Jamestown. Ice accumulations look to peak in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range in an 80 mile wide corridor generally centered along Interstate 64, including the Louisville and Lexington metro areas. Lower amounts are expected north and south of that corridor.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and the northern two-thirds of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect snow to start this morning and become heavy at times. A transition to sleet and freezing rain is forecast from south to north this morning through afternoon, reaching along and north of the I-64 corridor around mid afternoon. Amounts will taper off overnight before a second wave of snow is forecast through the day Monday.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

The HRRR model is showing a heavy thumping of snowfall starting this morning before switching to freezing rain then back to snow. Power outages will be expected where significant icing occurs. 

Radar

Winter Storm Update

 Winter Storm Update: Snowfall amounts increased based on latest model runs.

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 6 and 10 inches along and north of the I-64 corridor, 3 and 6 inches along a line from Tell City, IN to Elizabethtown, to Richmond, KY, and 1 to 3 inches along a line from Hartford, to Munfordville, to Liberty, KY. Ice accumulations look to peak in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range along a line from Tell City, IN to Shepherdsville and Lexington, KY. Lower amounts are forecast north and south of that vicinity.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect snow to start Sunday morning and become heavy at times. A transition to sleet and freezing rain is forecast from south to north Sunday morning through the afternoon, reaching along and north of the I-64 corridor around Sunday mid afternoon. Amounts will taper off overnight before a second wave of snow is forecast through the day Monday.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

HRRR Snow and Ice forecast. 

Winter Storm Sunday/Monday

The time to prepare is winding down and we are expecting major impacts to travel and the power grid. Significant amounts of icing is forecast along with accumulating snowfall. Many schools and businesses will be closed, so make sure you have a way to be notified of closures.

The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected from early Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. Southern Indiana is expected to receive snow/sleet amounts of 6-10 inches, with ice accumulations of 0.2 to 0.5 inches. North central Kentucky is expected to receive snow/sleet amounts of 2 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of 0.2 to 0.6 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and much of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets, and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Here is the HRRR Model which updates every hour is showing in terms of the ice storm which is a significant amount. 

Here is the HRRR Model in terms of snowfall. These totals will change throughout the day and I will update as we get closer to the storm. I will update the blog with photos and videos throughout the duration of the storm. 

With the potential for power outages, please DO NOT use you generator inside your homes!

The Severe Side 

With Winter Storm comes severe weather and there is a threat for all modes in the South. An Enhanced Risk has been issued for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas where tornadoes are possible.