Winter Storm Friday Update

 Current conditions

Temperatures are very cold right now due to the snow pack and clear skies from overnight, freezing fog was also a factor.

Freezing Fog Advisory

* WHAT...Visibility less than one mile in freezing fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

A Winter Storm Warning for snow has been issued 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected. Along the Kentucky and Tennessee border, 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ Friday to 6 AM CST /7 AM EST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The Friday afternoon commute will be negatively impacted.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

HRRR Model run.

Hi res nam run

The Weather Prediction Center has a 10% chance of accumulating greater than or equal to 4 inches of snow.

The lmk probabilistic Snowfall Experiment predicts 3-4 and 4-6 falling across the state on Friday.

Winter Storm Friday

A winter storm is expected to produce accumulating snow Thursday night through Friday. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for snow. Most models are in agreement with accumulating snow sweeping through with up to at least 3 inches. These totals will likely fluctuate a bit as we get closer the the actual event. Friday evening is when the heaviest of the snow is expected to fall. 

Winter Storm Watch

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow possible. Snowfall accumulations within the watch area of 4 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possibe.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slick road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts over the next few days.

Here is the GFS model run of the snowfall

And here is the NAM model of the snowfall 

Accumulating snow possible Friday

There is potential for more accumulating snow of 1 to 4 inches across Kentucky with higher amounts in the South. Ice does not appear to be a threat at this time across Kentucky, so it will not be a repeat.

Here is a run of the GFS model

The probabilistic Snowfall Experiment by the National Weather Service shows a good 50-60% chance of snow accumulations greater than 2 inches.

Winter Storm in Progress

 The winter storm is now in progress, here is an update to the warning. Significant amounts of snowfall and ice accumulations are expected. 

9:27 pm update, power is out and freezing rain continues falling across the state.

2:14 pm update, we accumulated about 6 inches of snow and we are now on to the ice storm portion of the winter storm where 3/4th" of ice is expected across the state. 

9:50 am

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 6 and 10 inches along and north of the I-64 corridor, 3 and 6 inches from Tell City to Elizabethtown to Richmond, and 1 to 3 inches from Hartford to Munfordville to Jamestown. Ice accumulations look to peak in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range in an 80 mile wide corridor generally centered along Interstate 64, including the Louisville and Lexington metro areas. Lower amounts are expected north and south of that corridor.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and the northern two-thirds of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect snow to start this morning and become heavy at times. A transition to sleet and freezing rain is forecast from south to north this morning through afternoon, reaching along and north of the I-64 corridor around mid afternoon. Amounts will taper off overnight before a second wave of snow is forecast through the day Monday.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

The HRRR model is showing a heavy thumping of snowfall starting this morning before switching to freezing rain then back to snow. Power outages will be expected where significant icing occurs. 

Radar

Winter Storm Update

 Winter Storm Update: Snowfall amounts increased based on latest model runs.

Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 6 and 10 inches along and north of the I-64 corridor, 3 and 6 inches along a line from Tell City, IN to Elizabethtown, to Richmond, KY, and 1 to 3 inches along a line from Hartford, to Munfordville, to Liberty, KY. Ice accumulations look to peak in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range along a line from Tell City, IN to Shepherdsville and Lexington, KY. Lower amounts are forecast north and south of that vicinity.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect snow to start Sunday morning and become heavy at times. A transition to sleet and freezing rain is forecast from south to north Sunday morning through the afternoon, reaching along and north of the I-64 corridor around Sunday mid afternoon. Amounts will taper off overnight before a second wave of snow is forecast through the day Monday.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

HRRR Snow and Ice forecast. 

Winter Storm Sunday/Monday

The time to prepare is winding down and we are expecting major impacts to travel and the power grid. Significant amounts of icing is forecast along with accumulating snowfall. Many schools and businesses will be closed, so make sure you have a way to be notified of closures.

The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning

* WHAT...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected from early Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. Southern Indiana is expected to receive snow/sleet amounts of 6-10 inches, with ice accumulations of 0.2 to 0.5 inches. North central Kentucky is expected to receive snow/sleet amounts of 2 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of 0.2 to 0.6 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and much of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets, and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Here is the HRRR Model which updates every hour is showing in terms of the ice storm which is a significant amount. 

Here is the HRRR Model in terms of snowfall. These totals will change throughout the day and I will update as we get closer to the storm. I will update the blog with photos and videos throughout the duration of the storm. 

With the potential for power outages, please DO NOT use you generator inside your homes!

The Severe Side 

With Winter Storm comes severe weather and there is a threat for all modes in the South. An Enhanced Risk has been issued for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas where tornadoes are possible.

Winter Storm Threat

A disturbance tonight is expected to produce light snow tonight. This is not the main storm. 

Special Weather Statement

Light snow showers are expected to develop after midnight tonight over southern Indiana and move east through north central and east central Kentucky through Friday morning. Any snow accumulations are expected to be under a half inch and mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces. However a brief light snow accumulation may result in a few slick spots on roads.

Drivers should use caution and slow down in snow showers during the Friday morning commute. Light snow is expected to exit the area by midday.

Winter Storm Watch

* WHAT...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected from early Sunday through Monday afternoon. Snow and sleet amounts of greater than 4 inches and significant ice accumulations of greater than a quarter of an inch are expected in the watch area.

* WHERE...All of southern Indiana and the northern half of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel is expected to become slick and hazardous on Sunday and continue into Monday. Travel may become impossible at times Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant ice accumulations across portions of the watch area may result in tree and power line damage. Power outages will be possible.

Residents of southern Indiana and central Kentucky should prepare for this winter storm. Stay abreast of the latest forecasts at weather.gov/lmk.

NAM icing potential, not official.

GFS icing potential, not official. 

So, we are still a few days out, there will be tweaks to the models with each new run. Nonetheless disruptive weather is on the way and an Ice storm is looking probable over a good chunk of the state of Kentucky. I would prepare well in advance for the potential for power outages from falling tree limbs and down powerlines due to icing.

Winter Storm Threat

There is increasing potential for a winter storm with freezing rain, sleet, and heavy snow Sunday through Monday night. Precipitation type and amounts will heavily depend on the track of the low. The NWS WPC has highlighted a widespread area for the threat of heavy snow Sunday through Monday.